Here it is... the Teana Open!

[Lord Ludwig]

First a warning: I know I'm crazy, so there's no need to be rude and tell me to my face;)

As some of you know, time ago I posted a topic about each unit fighting it out against the others in a tennis-tournament style competition. The post got some very interesting responses, and so I went to draw an actual "grand slam2 tournament for our beloved KBAP units.

A few words about how it works:

1) I only used those units that can be bought. No Book of evil, no angelic guard, no adult gobots, above all no ancient phoenix (a very strong contender for the championship)
2) rather than picking at random I extended the seeding system to all 96 placing them according to a ranking based on a) leadership b) cost c) health
3) just as happened years ago in one specific tournament (Key Biscayne) having 96 competitors means the 32 highest seeded get a bye for the first round
4) I did not calculate every uncertain fight to the last detail. So my scoring system, based again on the "best out of 5 sets" in tennis reads: a) 3-0 a clear victory, no doubts for me (which is not to say I may not have overlooked something) b) 3-1 I am pretty sure but there is room for some doubt c) 3-2 a very close fight, deeper analysis by experts would be welcome d) when a T appears, it means win through "tie-break".
5) So what is a tie-break? My problem was, what happens when a fight is to be considered undecided from here to eternity, when A can outrun B but not kill him from a distance (think giant vs forest fairy)? One option was to eliminate both opponents, another to toss a coin. In the end, just as in tennis a tie-break reproduces the essentials of a match - alternate serve, two points ahead needed to win - in a smaller context, I decided to imagine our two competitors secluded in a grid of only 7 hexes, where no running away is possible.

So any comments are welcome (in the spirit of the game, no need to tell me this does not actually learn us anything new or useful about the campaign) - feel free to correct me if you think I misjudged the outcome of some fights.

Here we go with the top half of the draw, first round


Black Dragon (1) – bye
Decaying Zombie – Priest 1-3
Black Unicorn – Peasant 3-0
bye – Assassin (32)
Ent (17) – bye
Hyena – Elf 0-3
Griffin – Miner 3-0
bye – Alchemist (16)
Ancient Ent (9) – bye
Snake – Gorgul 0-3
Beholder – Venomous Spider 3-0
bye – Archmage (24)
Shaman (25) – bye
Devilfish – Guard Droid 0-3
Bear – Marauder 3-0
bye – Bone Dragon (8)

Giant (5) – bye
Berserker – Guardsman 0-3
Veteran Orc – Lake Dragonfly 3-0T
bye – Ancient Vampire (28)
Cannoneer (21) – bye
Skeleton Archer – Catapult 0-3
Vampire – Wolf 3-0
bye – Royal Thorn (12)
Executioner (13) – bye
Swamp Snake – Dwarf 0-3
Inquisitor – Cave Spider 3-0
bye – Chosha (20)
Knight (29) – bye
Thorn Warrior – Hayterant 0-3
Sea Dog – Swordsman 3-0
bye – Green Dragon (4)

[pavned]

Any chance you could post the results of your conforntation in an excel file format so we can see how the match-up went?

Would like to see how you calculate the results of those matches.

As for units, is it a 1 on 1 or leadership base?

Cause I really don't see the need for a tournament with 96 draws when there's no chance a unit of lower levels can match-up againts level 5 units!

I do love the idea tough!

Writting something about that on the board

[Lord Ludwig]

As for units, is it a 1 on 1 or leadership base?

Cause I really don't see the need for a tournament with 96 draws when there's no chance a unit of lower levels can match-up against level 5 units!


It's 1 vs 1, and I know very well it's mostly pointless, but that's just the spirit of it! As for lvl1-4 being defenseless against all lvl 5 don't be too sure about it:o

Obviously, if you like the idea, feel free to do something similar with stacks based on leadership or gold or whatever, say as many as 50k leadership will get you regardless of gold, or instead how many 100k gold get regardless of leadership. However, the unit that's, well, going to win in 1 vs 1 is, I think, even more clearly the winner in many vs many.:evil:

I am not very good with excel alas, and as for calculations, I did them - and approximately at that - only when the result seemed somewhat uncertain to me.

[Lord Ludwig]

And here is the bottom half of round 1

Red Dragon (3) – bye
Scoffer Imp – Furious Goblin 3-0
Polar Bear – Thorn Hunter 3-2
bye – Demoness (30)
Paladin (19) – bye
Gobot – Druid 0-3
Ancient Bear – Pirate 3-0
bye – Royal Griffin (14)
Ogre (11) –bye
Fire Spider – Ghost 0-3
Gorguana – Undead Spider 3-0
bye – Demonologist (22)
Evil Beholder (27) – bye
Forest Fairy – Foreman 0-3
Werewolf Elf – Barbarian 3-0
bye – Archdemon (6)

Cyclops (7) – bye
Goblin – Royal Snake 3-1 retconned to 0-3:oops:
Unicorn – Fire Dragonfly 3-0
bye – Horseman (26)
Necromancer (23) – bye
Cursed Ghost – Skeleton 3-0
Orc – Zombie 3-0
bye – Troll (10)
Demon (15) – bye
Dryad – Repair Droid 0-3
Cerberus – Robber 3-0
bye – Brontor (18)
Black Knight (31) – bye
Lake Fairy – Hunter 0-3
Bowman – Imp 2-3
bye – T-Rex (2)

Not a lot of tight fights in the first round. The priest should beat the decaying zombie thanks to ranged attacks+holy damage, the veteran orc probably chases fruitlessly after the lake dragonfly but wins hands down in the restricted grid (tie-break), the sea dog has an overall edge on the swordsman. In the bottom half it's a close call between the polar bear and the thorn hunter. The TH is faster and has ranged attack but does abysmal damage, one single hit from the PB means game over. It depends on the grid of course, but I guess the PB will manage to corner the TH and smash it. Close call also between the Imp and the bowman. Also here it depends on the grid, the bigger it is the better the chances of the bowman but my bet is on an average grid the imp closes distance and wins thanks to his no retaliation attack. Last but not least, the very useful (early on in the campaign) royal snake goes down, IMHO, to the goblin, who can keep distance and attack from range.

[pavned]

Goblin win 3 1 against Royal Snake?

How come?

It must be a type, there's no way 1 goblin can kill 1 Royal Snake. The RS can get to the Goblin in 2 turns with his higher initiative and his special attack from afar.

That's max 12 (2 maxed critical attack by Golbin --> 4 x 1,5 x 2 - 12)

The RS got 64 health, menaing he still got 52 health when he start biting out at 6-10 on a the Goblin with his 26 health plus there's chances of poisoning him.

Even if the goblin go for the run-away for 2 hex then throw axes at the RS (he got speed of 3), the higher initiative of the RS means he'll play last and can insure to approach the Goblin in a way that he'll eventualy trapped him. Plus the 2 hex attack of the RS means he'll manage to get a piece of the Goblin from time to time.

[pavned]

I think you kind of understimate the value of initiative in this match up:

Bear vs Marauder : Both same speed meaning that the marauder can always escape the bear with his higher initative.

The bear can only use his running ability once. That means, if the bear plays it well, he can inflict damage to the marauder once for a max 15 (max damage 10 x 1,5 for critical attack)

But the marauder got the swift stroke ability that can be recharge. So the MArauder, with higeher initiative can hit the bear with no-retaliation at the end of turn then escape away for 3 turns and use again that ability inflicting damages. The trick here is that the Marauder can't afford the bear to have him right beside him. If the marauder wants to keep usigng the swift stroke ability without getting attack he needs to keep at least 1 hex between him and the bear all the time. I think it's doable with a unit having higher initiative, you need to plan your movement well.

In the long run I can'T see the bear winning a 5 sets match. For a tie break, the strategy describe above won't work so the bear win. But on a normal grid the MArauder can manage to outrun the bear then hit him then run again enough time to kill the bear.

[dashcunning]

Last but not least, the very useful (early on in the campaign) royal snake goes down, IMHO, to the goblin, who can keep distance and attack from range.

I don't agree with this. The royal snake has 6 initiative and 3 speed vs the goblin's 5 initiative and 2 speed. The snake would close eventually with a minimum rate of 2 spaces per turn (snake moves 3 closer while goblin moves 1 away and attacks). Realistically, this is 3 per turn as the goblin can't move further away having started on the opposite end of the tennis court.

On average, the royal snake only needs to hit the goblin twice. First hit would be the strike ability which, with 18 attack and 25% crit vs 10 defense, does 14.25 damage. Second hit would be a regular attack which does 12.35 damage.

The goblin is more difficult due to the zeroing in ability. Does it increase attack or damage? It says attack, but there are plenty of mistranslations so it could be damage. Without any zeroing in bonus, a goblin's attack, with 16 attack and 10% crit vs 18 defense and 10% physical resistance, does 2.78 damage (24! hits to kill). If zeroing in increases attack, attack would increase by 4.8 (is this rounded up or down? what a mess) per round eventually reaching 78 attack vs 18 defense for a maximum damage of 8.91 (8 hits, still quite a few). If zeroing in increases damage, damage would increase by ... (this is a mess as well) lets say 0.83 (2.78 * 0.3) per turn. 10 hits to kill.

I don't see a goblin living long enough to get in that many hits unless the court is VERY large.

[Lord Ludwig]

Many thanks for the first comments!

Criticism by now is on two matches: 1) marauder vs bear; 2) goblin vs royal snake. I'll handle the more complex case first.

1) here I am not persuaded. Considering relative AT/DE ratio (14/8 for the bear, 12/16 for the marauder), the equal speed, the average damage the bear does (8.5 becoming 14.875 with AT/DE ratio) compared to that done by the marauder (4.5 becoming 3.5), the critical damage the bear does (a weighted 24.75), the health of the bear being 60 to the marauder's 35, it seems a dead sentence for the marauder. If he uses swift stroke then don't forget the bear has the "brutal" skill, meaning his AT doubles for that round, meaning he doesn't counterstrike but his following hit will do an average damage of 25.5 and a critical of 45. Maybe the marauder could use his higher initiative better just defending, but it still looks like curtains for him.

2) here instead I am persuaded. Actually the goblin's speed is 3 and not 2, but in turn I misread the RS's speed, thinking it was 2 like the other snakes when in fact it's 3. This means the goblin cannot keep distance and keep hitting at the same time, so indeed I will use my privilege as organizer, sponsor and supreme judge of the Teana Open to retcon the result of the first round and give a 3-o score to the royal snakes:rolleyes:
It still remains an open question if the RS would have won if indeed the goblin had been one unit of speed faster like I erroneously thought he was.

[Zechnophobe]

Marauder vs Bear:

Start of Turn:
IF: Maurader is more than 2 squares away from bear He waits.
Bear moves.
If he can use no retal ability, he moves to position to do so.
IF: Marauder is not more than 2 squares away from bear, or is unable to use no retaliation ability: He runs away, out of range.

He shouldn't lose, he may not ever even get hit.

Speaking of.. how Does a Polar bear lose to a Thorn Hunter? ( mean, at all, you have it as 3-2 only, like it is a close combat or something).
PB has higher init, so it is similar to Marauder. Wait at beginning of turn, and then after thorn moves, move towards it.

Activate running only once you are 4 squares away. Should be a snap. It isn't like the thorn has inifinite retreat distance to keep backpedaling through.

[dashcunning]

Actually the goblin's speed is 3 and not 2

Goblin's speed really is 2, honest, cross my heart and hope to die. Furious goblins have a speed of 3, but those are the melee ones. Maybe that's where the confusion is coming from. Or maybe my game is just busted.

[dashcunning]

Marauder vs Bear:

Start of Turn:
IF: Maurader is more than 2 squares away from bear He waits.
Bear moves.
If he can use no retal ability, he moves to position to do so.
IF: Marauder is not more than 2 squares away from bear, or is unable to use no retaliation ability: He runs away, out of range.

He shouldn't lose, he may not ever even get hit.


That would only work once. Their speed is the same, the bear always moves 2 closer every turn. Once the bear gets too close, the marauder has to move 2 away every turn to maintain distance or he will get hit. If the marauder is moving 2 every turn to match the bear moving 2 every turn, then the marauder has no action points left with to attack.

The higher init would allow the marauder to run when his ability isn't ready and avoid the bear on those turns. This means the marauder gets 2 hits to every bear hit. The no retaliation ability and the retaliation to the bear's hit. Whether or not that's enough to kill the bear, I can't be bothered to check. I already did my math for the day.


Edit: I've attached an excel spreadsheet I made. It has all the various stats of different units and does some calculations as well. Damage per Leadership (adjusted for attack and crit), Health per unit (adjusted for defense), Total damage resistance (adjusted for defense and physical resistance). You can plug in your hero's attack/defense/crit/resistance/extra damage (assassin's dagger or whip of pain) and enemy attack/defense at the top. It is lacking the special abilities and talents however.

I figure most people would have something similar, but if not they can use mine. I find it helpful so others might as well.

[MaroonMaurader]

The Bear definitely beats the Maurader. Both have speed of 2, and the bear clearly wins the tiebreak, so the bear has no need to close to range with the Maurader. If the grid is infinite, the Bear can just turn and run and it's a stalemate; then bear wins tiebreak. If the grid is finite, the bear can gradually herd the Maurader into a corner. The maurader cannot slip by the bear unless there is very unusual terrain (i.e., a loop around which the Maurader can run but the bear cannot) or the maurader is willing to take a hit for it's trouble. AND if the bear is commanded well he can arrange so that the Maurader will always have to suffer a bear attack for each time he wastes a turn not moving so he can use his no-retal attack.

I'm pretty sure the Veteran Orc can win vs. Lake Dragonfly without tiebreak - he only needs to get one hit. If he saves his run ability until he's in the right position, on most grids he can get that one hit in. On an exceptionally large or obstacle-ridden one he can't, but those are... exceptional.

The Thorn Hunter shouldn't even come close to beating the Polar Bear - the Thorn Hunter does 1-2 damage, with attack 4. The polar bear has defense 26, so the effective damage is basically 1. It would need to hit the polar bear 130 times to kill it. Meanwhile, the polar bear need only get in one hit. And since the polar bear has the run ability plus higher initiative, the polar bear can hit the thorn if the thorn ever ends a turn within a radius of 6 of the polar bear (polar bear waits. Thorn moves. If the thorn is within 6, polar bear uses run to close 4 spaces, then moves the remaining 2 at the start of the next turn). On an infinitely large grid the thorn wins, but even on a large 12x12 grid the polar bear can simply stand in the middle, then slowly inch towards the thorn hunter cutting off space until it gets the kill.

Bowmen vs. imps is definitely strongly in the imps favor. The imps always strike first due to higher initiative; thanks to throwing two fireballs while they close the gap they'll get a hit in every turn, their attacks do more damage (on average) than the bowmen, they have almost equal health (32 to 34), and once the imps close the gap if they're smart they'll move right up next to the bowmen before launching strike-and-return attacks... meaning they can corner the bowmen, and on the 5th, 7th, 9th, etc. turns (possibly 6th, 8th, 10th, etc. or 4th, 6th, 8th, etc. depending on the size of the grid) the bowmen will be stuck in melee range - meaning they get no attack that turn. I'd predict the bowman die around turn 7, by which time I'd expect them to have done maybe 18 damage to the imps. And that's assuming the bowmen don't take any burning damage over time from the imp's fireball, which they might.

Otherwise I think I agree with all your judgements.

[Lord Ludwig]

Once again thanks to everybody for reading and commenting upon this crooked topic!

Dashcunning already replied to zechnophobe along the lines I would have used to argue in favor of the bear beating the marauder.

The speed of the goblin: I checked on a save file and indeed it's 2. However the table in pdf format I dl'd somewhere from this forum gives the speed as 3. Since I couldn't look up all 96 units in game, I used this table as a reference. If it has more errors then of course some results may be a little askew as well.

As for the thorn hunter - polar bear issue... a clarification I already presented in the first post:

When I use "3-1" and "3-2" I do NOT mean "team a wins 3 times out of four" or "team a wins 3 times out of 5". I just mean "3-1: I am pretty sure team A wins, however there is some doubt, for example if team B is exceptionally lucky or the grid is very peculiar", "3-2: I think team A wins, however there are so many variables that much deeper calculation would be required and, due to the random aspect of many variables, would still probably not settle the matter once and for all".

Probably the TH-PB match should have been 1-3 rather than 2-3, but I gave the PB as winners anyway so I don't think a correction is really needed.

The tennis jargon is just an analogy, after all this is the KB universe... I do not envision the loser to go showering and think about better tactics after fighting 5 times, I envision one fight to the death with the winner surviving, and only one unit alive after 7 rounds:evil:

[Lord Ludwig]

And here is round 2, top half.


Black Dragon (1) 3
Priest 0

Black Unicorn 2
Assassin (32) 3

Ent (17) 3
Elf 0

Griffin 1
Alchemist (16) 3T

Ancient Ent (9) 3
Gorgul 0

Beholder 2
Archmage (24) 3

Shaman (25) 3
Guard Droid 0

Bear 0
Bone Dragon (8 ) 3

A few interesting matches here. The BD toasts the priest immediately, the ent has no problems taking out the elf from distance through swarm (takes some rounds but is quite settled through higher AT, DE and health), bone dragon, AE and shaman should have no trouble respectively with bear, gorgul and guard droid. Griffin-alchemist, I think, goes to tie-break. Initiative is equal. The ranged attacks of the A either are charge-based or have short range, so the griffin could keep distance but would go down in restricted space. I say 3-1 and not 3-0 after TB because maybe I am overlooking something.

Black unicorn - assassin. This has many variables. My guess is venomous+no retaliation more than makes up for the BU's higher health and average damage. Also keep in mind the A has high critical (25%) so there's a good chance he will strike some hefty hits.

Beholder-Archmage. An interesting battle at long range. I think - but may be mistaken - that protecting himself with magic shield the AM will be the winner.

[Lord Ludwig]

Ooops, sorry, of course that was only top half of the top half... here are the other eight fights to complete the first half of the draw.

Giant (5) 3
Guardsman 0

Veteran Orc 0
Ancient Vampire (28 ) 3

Cannoneer (21) 3
Catapult 0

Vampire 3 retconned to 0-3:oops:
Royal Thorn (12) 2

Executioner (13) 3
Dwarf 0

Inquisitor 0
Chosha (20) 3

Knight (29) 3T
Hayterant 2

Sea Dog 0
Green Dragon (4) 3

A quick word only on the two matches I consider uncertain. The Hayterant can keep away from the knight but would lose on TB. However it's possible that combining higher initiative with sharp beak the H could pull off hit&run tactics to snatch victory. Deeper calculations are welcome.

We also have the first eliminated high-ranking unit. I think regeneration+no retaliation allows the vampire to beat the royal thorn, counting also his higher initiative. Maybe sowing however could switch the balance. Again, the word to the experts.

[MaroonMaurader]

If the Royal Thorn sows, at a minimum he creates 18 thorn-hunters (or 108 hitpoints in thorns, at defense 1). If the vampire vampire broke off to try and deal with the thorn-hunters, AND got a critical hit every single turn, he'd do about 30 damage a turn to them. So if the vampire spends time attacking the summoned thorns, every 3 turns he does 90 damage to summoned thorns at most, and at least 108 hitpoints of new thorns are created. He'll never catch up, so his only hope is to kill the royal thorn before it can summon too many supporting thorns. Even if he critical-hits the royal thorn every single turn, it's still only about 14 damage a turn, meaning he needs 26 consecutive critical hits (i.e., 26 turns) to kill the royal thorn.

But by turn 8 there can be 3 supporting thorn stacks in play, which is enough to blockade the royal thorn in a corner. Now the vampire has no choice but to attack summoned thorns, but the royal thorn can take all the time in the world and gradually summon more and more. Heck, the royal thorn can fill up the entire battle grid with thorns if he wants to, then they can all launch one massive salvo at the vampire.

In fact, with ideal luck the royal thorn can take down a troll at night. With any sort 1-space chokepoint (uncommon, but not unheard of on battlefields) the royal thorns can seal themselves away from the troll with just one germinate, before the trolls close to melee. With consistent ideal luck, the royal thorns could summon 37 9-hp thorn warriors every 3 turns (or 333hp of defense-3 blockers). With more consistent ideal luck, the troll would do only 107 damage per turn, or 321 damage every 3 turns - or it would take 4 turns to kill off what the royal thorn can create in 3. So given time the royal thorn could gradually create a whole series of thorns, then could slowly manipulate them around the map until the troll is surrounded by thorn warriors, and the rest of the map is filled with thorn hunters. That's about 50 thorn-hunter units of 37, or 1,850 thorn-hunters all hitting the troll at once. If a thorn-hunter gets a critical hit, it does 1.78 damage, so 1,850 of them hitting does close to 3,000 damage. So while the odds are so astronomical that you'd probably have to invent a whole new notation just to write them, AND it requires a favorable map (either a particularly large one, like in Ultrax, or one with a convenient 1-space chokepoint), I believe the royal thorn may be the only unit even theoretically capable of killing a troll at night. And it certainly can kill a vampire.

[Lord Ludwig]

Indeed I did not take in account how many thorns were created through germination. I suppose I mixed it up with sowing which calls forth a lot less. Actually considering the ratio between the vampire's attack and the thorn's defense he could crit for 45 damage, but that still means he needs at least a couple of criticals every three rounds just to keep up. So I guess a second retcon is in order, I'll just wait to see if someone can come up with a winning strategy for the vampire. As for the troll by night, the RT would have to be really unbelievably lucky... I guess he can be killed by the ancient phoenix (which I did not include in the tournament). Maybe also by the black dragon, if the BD waits, hits critically, burns the troll, then hits critically again in the next round.

Anyway, here is the bottom half of round 2:

Red Dragon (3) 3
Scoffer Imp 0

Polar Bear 3
Demoness (30) 1

Paladin (19) 2
Druid 3

Ancient Bear 0
Royal Griffin (14) 3

Ogre (11) 3T
Ghost 0

Gorguana 0
Demonologist (22) 3

Evil Beholder (27) 3
Foreman 0

Werewolf Elf 0
Archdemon (6) 3


Cyclops (7) 3
Royal Snake 0

Unicorn 0
Horseman (26) 3

Necromancer (23) 3
Cursed Ghost 0

Orc 0
Troll (10) 3

Demon (15) 1 retconned to 3-2:oops:
Repair Droid 3

Cerberus 0
Brontor (18 ) 3

Black Knight (31) 3
Hunter 0

Imp 0
T-Rex (2) 3

A few close calls again, so probably I overlooked something once more:-)

not many notable things about the 3-0 matches: the werewolf is very unlucky, regeneration even with just 55 health could go some way against his fellow lvl 3 units, but the archdemon obviously rips him to pieces in one round.

The demon, on the other hand, fares badly against the repair droid. The demon can strike once using running, but even if he hits critically he will only hit for, I reckon, 45-46 dmg. The RD survives and unless the grid is very small from then on keeps out of reach and slowly takes down the demon. It is possible, however, that the demon summons imps, who in turn could use their fireball and possibly burn the RD before it takes care of them. If however the one blow the demon is able to deliver is not a critical it's all for nothing. A lot of if's, I guess, and thus just enough to warrant a 3-1 instead of a 3-0, but still - until I am corrected - an almost certain win for the RD.

Can the druid keep distance from the paladin and wear him down from a distance? I think he cannot, but can the summoned bears change the outcome? Every bear could go on a suicide mission wounding the paladin a bit every time... Certainly if the paladin could close for melee he would win, but can he, being no faster than the druid? At first I thought the paladin would win on TB, but now I am inclined to declare a slow win for the druid... that means the second rank head going down (three awaiting the retcon for the royal thorn) so I suppose someone will want to analyze this further. Maybe regardless of equal speed the paladin can corner the druid. Or the druid could be forced to never slow down in order to summon, going in stalemate and thus a win for the paladin on TB just like I thought at first.

And there is a fourth high entry in peril: I think the no retaliation whip attack every two turns does not save the demoness from the higher health and damage of the polar bear. The word to the audience again...

[Zechnophobe]

Royal thorn I think loses to vampire actually. How many thorns does the royal need out to actually kill the vampire in a single round? This assumes he flies in close as bat form, then switches to melee form when he can.

I think druid kills paladin. It's a tricky one, but the paladin is REALLY slow, and bears will clog his pathways. Though, I would be curious to see how many actual druid hits it takes to kill a paladin.

As for Demon vs Repair droid: I am not quite convinced of this. Demon can summon friends, and more so has that 50% chance to get another action point when he's attacked. This means the repair droid can't quite do the 'wait-move' trick to keep him at bay. Not without occasionally using ALL his action points to escape. And yeah, demon only needs two hits!

[dashcunning]

Black unicorn - assassin. This has many variables. My guess is venomous+no retaliation more than makes up for the BU's higher health and average damage. Also keep in mind the A has high critical (25%) so there's a good chance he will strike some hefty hits.

Beholder-Archmage. An interesting battle at long range. I think - but may be mistaken - that protecting himself with magic shield the AM will be the winner.

The Hayterant can keep away from the knight but would lose on TB. However it's possible that combining higher initiative with sharp beak the H could pull off hit&run tactics to snatch victory.

In the simplest straight up brawl, the assassin wins due to his no retaliation. Once you factor in his 2 special attacks and venomous I think it becomes a 3-1 match.

Archmage has innate 50% magic resistance vs beholder's magic type attack. In the simplest straight up shooting match, archmage wins handily due to higher damage and higher health. Magic shield is not necessary. Using fighting trance (doubles damage and not attack, another mistranslation), archmage would crush beholder. Call this a 3-0 match.

Knight has innate 30% physical resistance. Even with crits all the time, the hayterant would be doing less damage than the knight to start with and much less once mastery kicks in. Knight has more 45% more health. 3-0 match.

[dashcunning]

Royal thorn I think loses to vampire actually. How many thorns does the royal need out to actually kill the vampire in a single round? This assumes he flies in close as bat form, then switches to melee form when he can.

I think druid kills paladin. It's a tricky one, but the paladin is REALLY slow, and bears will clog his pathways. Though, I would be curious to see how many actual druid hits it takes to kill a paladin.


Average case: 47 thorn warriors hits, 68 thorn hunter hits, 2 royal thorn hits, or some combination thereof.
Best case (every hit a crit, damage rounded up): 24 warrior, 35 thorn, 2 royal

Paladin has innate 30% magic resistance, druid does an average of 2.66 damage to start (76! hits to kill) and 1.61 at full mastery (124!! hits). Paladin is godawful slow, but that's a ridiculous number of hits. I think the bears would actually do most of the damage, while the druid plays ring around the rosey (bearsey?) to keep the paladin at bay. Paladin can't kill even the worst bears in one hit (even with a crit), so they would eventually suffer death thru bear retaliation. If they choose to chase the druid, they would never get him while the bears slowly pick away health. 3-0 match for the druids, extremely tedious but they win eventually I think.

Edit: I forgot about paladin prayer which he could use to heal himself a bit. Battle takes even longer (druid hits even more absurd) but outcome is ultimately the same.


Polar Bear 3
Demoness (30) 1

I think the no retaliation whip attack every two turns does not save the demoness from the higher health and damage of the polar bear

This one is an absolute squeaker. Similar to the marauder vs bear, over time it's 2 demoness hits for every polar bear hit. The demoness can time her hits such that the polar bear never gets to take advantage of brutal. The averages say that the demoness needs 9.02 (!) hits to kill while the bear needs 4.9. The demoness can't get her 10th and final hit in before the bear gets his 5th and final hit. If luck favors the demoness just a bit, the bear goes down on the 9th hit. 3-2 for the bear but very, VERY close.

[Lord Ludwig]

The royal thorn-vampire match seems the big issue. Changing a 3-1 or even 3-2 to 3-0 affects nothing in the end, but here we have no unanimous verdict about the winner... I will wait a bit more to see if further arguments roll in before moving to round three.

[Lord Ludwig]

As for Demon vs Repair droid: I am not quite convinced of this. Demon can summon friends, and more so has that 50% chance to get another action point when he's attacked. This means the repair droid can't quite do the 'wait-move' trick to keep him at bay. Not without occasionally using ALL his action points to escape. And yeah, demon only needs two hits!

The description of demon rage says the demon has a 50% chance to get an extra turn and one action point. Does this also work if he hasn't moved yet in the round? Can he then move 4 cells? I am not sure but I don't remember it that way. As for the RD having to, occasionally, spend all his AP just to build distance that's no problem, droids usually are in no hurry:-)

As for needing only two hits, I think without a critical he needs at least three. Anyway, his big problem is even on a medium sized map he probably gets only one.

I still think the RD wins, unless further evidence to the contrary is produced.

[TemjinGold]

Extra turn only activates if he's used his turn already. Demons also dominate RDs, so don't forget that when figuring out damage.

[Lord Ludwig]

True, with domination average damage becomes something around 37, minimum damage about 33, so indeed two hits suffice. The true question remains if he CAN score that second hit.

[MaroonMaurader]

The Ogre can kill the ghost in just 1 hit... and with Drain I think he can get that hit. So (unless I'm mistaken, and Drain doesn't work on undead?) it's not really a tiebreak situation.

Regarding Demon / Repair Droid: first, I'm suspicious that with his summon demons ability and some smart coordination he's fine. Suppose he summons 2 imps; then they do about 16 total damage on the first and second turns (fireball), and with smart coordination can corner and beat up the repair droids subsequently. I'm not sure who wins in this case, but I lean towards demon + 2 imps managing at least another 16 damage before the imps die - which, paired with 33 damage from the one hit the demon gets, is enough. I believe taunt works on repair droids (nothing in the text to suggest otherwise, but correct me if I'm wrong), which means if they summon scoffer imps, the taunt ability is going to force the repair droids to never wait before moving, which means the scoffers plus demons can slowly corral them to one side of the map then kill them. If they summon cerberus, then the cerberus plus demon can combined block off basically all of a medium sized map, forcing the repair droids to brawl it out with the cerberus. But that's only suspicion. Even if they don't summon *anything*, thanks to bloody pentagram they can (one-time only) manage to move twice in a row - which should be enough to get them the second hit they need.

[Lord Ludwig]

Well, considering bloody pentagram + taunting (if scoffer imp appears) or cerberus (indeed the bad dog falls inside the leadership of "summon demons" for a single demon) + domination it really seems I have to reverse my judgment and make it a 3-1 for the demon instead of a 3-1 for the repair droid. A pity really; I am quite fond of the little buggers, and (unless I am mistaken again) they would have been able to kill at least 2 out of 11 lvl 5 units. The giant doesn't stand a chance, so does the troll - by day, of course - and on a very large map the ogre would go down to the repair droid as well.

All right, so in a little time - if nothing new arises - I will proceed to round 3 with two retcons, the "resurrection" of the royal thorn and the demon.

[TemjinGold]

Only thing to be wary of is the fact that you can't control the units that the demon summons...

[Lord Ludwig]

Only thing to be wary of is the fact that you can't control the units that the demon summons...

Well I guess it's in the spirit of this, let's call it "thought experiment", that every unit plays with perfect strategy rather than with so-so AI. Thus I don't think this really matters.

OK there have been no further arguments in favor of the repair droid and the vampire, so here is round 3 with the two retcons.

Black Dragon (1) 3
Assassin (32) 0

Ent (17) 3
Alchemist (16) 1

Ancient Ent (9) 3
Archmage (24) 0

Shaman (25) 0
Bone Dragon (8 ) 3


Giant (5) 0
Ancient Vampire (28 ) 3

Cannoneer (21) 0
Royal Thorn 3

Executioner (13) 3
Chosha (20) 1

Knight (29) 0
Green Dragon (4) 3



Red Dragon (3) 3
Polar Bear 0

Paladin (19) 0
Royal Griffin (14) 3

Ogre (11) 3
Demonologist (22) 0

Evil Beholder (27) 0
Archdemon (6) 3


Cyclops (7) 3
Horseman (26) 0

Necromancer (23) 0
Troll (10) 3

Demon (15) 3
Brontor (18 ) 2

Black Knight (31) 0
T-Rex (2) 3

I am quite uncertain about the demon vs brontor match. Originally I thought the repair droid was going to fight the brontor (and I was not very sure about the result of that match either). Now the demon has more health and does more damage, plus summon and hex. The brontor probably will do well to dig in and count on spikes. A close victory for the demon?

Two other matches are a bit uncertain. I think the executioner beats the chosha, who can breed gobots frequently, but in a number too shallow to turn the tide, at least so I think. As for the ent vs alchemist match I think the overall better stats of the ent and its poison resistance outweigh its vulnerability to the single fire attack of the alchemist.

So we have a result against the seeding, but the biggest surprise comes in a 3-0 form. Unless I overlooked something, higher speed, higher initiative and invulnerability to earthquake in bat form make the ancient vampire an impossible opponent to beat for the giant.

[TemjinGold]

Against the executioner, the chosha is actually better off NOT breeding gobots as the extra puny attacks simply serve to give the executioner more turns!

[Zechnophobe]

The Gobots are very high initiative, so should never trigger the Executioners ability. And in fact, the upgraded ones will cause poison damage, so I think it is completely worth it for the chosha to do it. Both units are immune to mind effecting spells so the fear from the Executioner will not help.

Actually that brings up a good question. Does the executioner win if the Chosha dies, but the gobots kill him? Because the executioner would be completely unable to kill gobots, especially in multiple stacks.

[Lord Ludwig]

Actually that brings up a good question. Does the executioner win if the Chosha dies, but the gobots kill him? Because the executioner would be completely unable to kill gobots, especially in multiple stacks.

Very good point, it seems some deeper calculations are in order here. I asked myself what should happen in a situation like the one you describe, with only summoned units surviving, but thought it wasn't happening in any fight. Now if the situation was "real" we should have either both "teams" out, or the gobots advancing instead of the chosha, but I think in the spirit of the game the chosha would, so to say, be raised to live and fight another day (only one, because anyway there's a green dragon hanging above his future).

[TemjinGold]

I think the fairest way is to ask what happens when you win in the game with only summoned units left in your army. Does the game consider this a "win" for Amelie or are you summoned to King Frederick? I've never had this happen to me so I honestly don't know...

[MaroonMaurader]

I just checked using Mystic Egg - if all you have left are summoned units, you win, stay where you are, and the enemy army vanishes.

[Lord Ludwig]

I think the fairest way is to ask what happens when you win in the game with only summoned units left in your army. Does the game consider this a "win" for Amelie or are you summoned to King Frederick? I've never had this happen to me so I honestly don't know...

I don't think that matters much. We are not thinking in game terms here, like player A wielding unit x against player B wielding unit y, that would lead to too many further variables (spellbook, items, class and so no). If the tournament was a real "arena" with the survivor going on, then logic would lead to both dying and being eliminated. A bit like the fight between Thor and Jormungand in the Ragnarok of Snorri, where the thunder god kills the world serpent but seconds later is killed by its poisonous breath. For the fun of the tournament however I would prefer to think of the chosha being resurrected. I still think however - will try to do further calculations - that the executioner wins, so no need yet to go resurrecting.

I also made some further inquiry into the vampire-royal thorn issue and indeed once germination is properly calculated there seems to be no room for doubt. If they just stood next to each other from the start the vampire would do a damage going from a minimum of 4 to a maximum - on critical - of 12, thus it would take him anywhere from 30 to 90 rounds to kill the RT. The RT does at least 30 damage, so it needs at most 40 thorns to finish the job (and 70 could do it on there own without the RT having to risk anything) and he can get them in at most 3 germinations, thus at round 7. All that without considering that the vampire does not start next to the RT, and can't risk going bat to close distance, because two hits by the RT would certainly kill him in batform. It seems indeed settled... Now will things be different for the Ancient Vampire?

[Lord Ludwig]

Calculating the chosha-executioner match exactly is not easy, but I come to the conclusion it takes the executioner, on average, about 6 rounds to kill the chosha, while the chosha takes 10. The executioner does an average damage of about 31 considering A/D ratio, a crit of 50, can throw in murdering for 45-48 so 6 rounds is all it takes, with a critical it could be 5. The chosha can delay by calling in gobots, and the executioner has to kill them right away because they can outrun him. He will kill them in one blow, and the turn he doesn't strike the chosha the chosha doesn't hit him either, so it's just delaying. A question could be however if the gobots can move away in the same turn thy were summoned and thus keep distance killing the executioner slowly from a distance. Then we would have the "both contestants killed" scenario.

The above calculations do not consider counterstrike, which means they both go down even quicker. If the summoned gobots can indeed escape the chosha would do well to defend instead of attacking.

Does someone have evidence about the gobots managing to sneak away?

[MaroonMaurader]

I think it comes down a few features of the map. If the Chosha start such that at least one space adjacent to them is 5 or more steps away from where the Executioners start, the first gobot spawned will get away before the executioner can close the gap.

If the Chosha start with at least one space adjacent to them 7 or more steps away from the executioners, the executioners have to use up their run ability to prevent a second set of gobots from getting away. This is a typical map distance, so I'll assume this is true.

If the Chosha start with open space on at least 5 sides, they can spawn Gobots on the opposite side from wherever the Executioner stands - in which case further gobots can escape as the fight goes on. If they start on a wall or in a corner, then no further gobots get away. Typically a solo unit will start on a wall or corner, so I'll also assume this is true.

So in a typical match-up, the executioners have to waste their run ability killing the second set of gobots, and the first get away cleanly. The executioners can then kill the chosha, but with speed 2, initiative 5 they're never going to catch speed 3, initiative 6 adult gobots; the AG can whittle them down and eventually win.

[Zechnophobe]

Gobots have 7 initiative. Executioners have 2 move (4 on first turn) and something like 4 init? 3? I don't recall at the moment. There is no way that first round of gobots would not get away. In fact, on most maps I can recall it is very unlikely the executioners would even get to melee range on turn two either, meaning that gobots would become adults, move away, and attack outside the executioners range.

Also, did you take into account the 'feasting' ability of the Chosha, to gain back ~50 life? (Without retaliation).

I think this is a lot harder combat for the executioners than it looks.

[Lord Ludwig]

As I said, what happens in the campaign is not really relevant, or at least not decisive. I think it's best to follow through with the tennis analogy so, if the executioner kills the chosha but is subsequently killed by the gobots, I guess it's like a tennis player winning his match but then giving forfeit due to excessive fatigue or injury. There are proposals to grant the losing player a ticket for the next round, but at present in pro tennis the next opponent just gets a walkover. So I guess the green dragon won't have to fight his 4th round. Anyway, I suppose there's no doubt the EGD would rip both the chosha and the executioner to pieces.

So here is the fourth round:

Black Dragon (1) 3
Alchemist (16) 0

Ancient Ent (9) 3
Bone Dragon (8 ) 0


Ancient Vampire (28 ) 1
Royal Thorn (12) 3

bye (see discussion)
Green Dragon (4)



Red Dragon (3) 3
Royal Griffin (14) 0

Ogre (11) 0
Archdemon (6) 3


Cyclops (7) 3
Troll (10) 0

Demon (15) 0
T-Rex (2) 3

Only one result against ranking - just. The ancient ent ranked 9 defeats easily (at least so I see it) the bone dragon thanks above all to its poison resistance. Keeping distance fails against swarm. Also only one slightly uncertain result. The ancient vampire can beat the royal thorn, but would have to be extraordinarily lucky to do so. First of all, if he goes to bat form to close distance, he risks to be killed right away before shapeshifting again in two blows if the RT scores one critical. So there is about a 35% chance that the fight is over before it starts. If the AV can get near the RT he does about 8 to 15 points of damage, 22 on a critical, thus he needs about 30 rounds on average to finish off the RT, 17 at minimum if scoring an extremely unlikely row of criticals. The RT needs at least 104 thorns to finish of the AV (immune to criticals while not in bat form), 116 if he wants to play it safe. he can get those numbers respectively at round 16 and 19 if he's unlucky, at 10 and 13 if he's lucky. Thus the combination of an extremely lucky AV with an extremely unlucky RT could give the win to the AV, but - unless I am again wrong - the chance of this happening is so close to 0 as not being distinguishable.

[TemjinGold]

Wait, shouldn't the AV be killing off the thorns as they're getting summoned (and sneaking in hits on the RT in between)?

[dashcunning]

The royal thorn generates, on average, 28 thorns (warrior or hunter) every 3 turns. The AV can kill, on average, 9 warriors or 15 hunters every 3 turns. Not even close to keeping up.

It's a bit of a shame both vampires ran into and got offed by the same thing that their gimmicks (regen and high init/speed no retaliation) wouldn't help against. Otherwise they were capable of beating any sufficiently slow melee. Guess it doesn't matter that much as they would have been dominated by a dragon eventually.

[Lord Ludwig]

The royal thorn generates, on average, 28 thorns (warrior or hunter) every 3 turns. The AV can kill, on average, 9 warriors or 15 hunters every 3 turns. Not even close to keeping up.

I agree that the vampires were quite unlucky with their entry rank, and that without germination the RT wouldn't stand a chance. However it gives 150-300 worth of leadership in thorns, which translates into a minimum of 18, a maximum of 37, an average (as you said) of 28. The point is not how many thorns the AV can kill, because indeed he can't keep up, the point is: does the AV have even the tiniest chance of finishing the RT before enough thorns are around to kill the AV in one round? Indeed he DOES have a chance, but that would require the RT to constantly summon the bare minimum of the 150-300 range and the AV to score 17 criticals in 19 rounds. Such event is clearly so unlikely as to be close to impossible. Once again, a 3-1 does not indicate that team A wins 75% of the matches, only that his victory is not completely and utterly guaranteed.

Ah, and let's not forget the AV DID beat the only top ten player to be eliminated early on, the giant.

[MaroonMaurader]

Once the Royal Thorns have at least 3 stacks of thorns, and at least one of them is thorn-hunters, they can use their minions to wall themselves in against the side of the map. The ancient vampires can try to maneuver themselves to lengthen the royal thorn's path to the wall, but starting with turn 4 the royal thorn can use summoned thorns to hold a path open and the ancient vampire can no longer stall; even before that the royal thorn can advance one space by tacking around the ancient vampire on turns 2 and 3.

So it's actually less likely than at first glance - the AV must get 17 critical hits in 19 rounds, at a 17% chance of a critical per attack; the royal thorn must summon no more than 21 thorns in any given germinate, AND those thorns must always be thorn warriors, not thorn hunters (~8% chance each). Giving total odds of success of roughly 3 in 1,000,000,000,000,000,000.

[Lord Ludwig]

So it's actually less likely than at first glance - the AV must get 17 critical hits in 19 rounds, at a 17% chance of a critical per attack; the royal thorn must summon no more than 21 thorns in any given germinate, AND those thorns must always be thorn warriors, not thorn hunters (~8% chance each). Giving total odds of success of roughly 3 in 1,000,000,000,000,000,000.

Indeed, as I said it's so unlikely as to be virtually impossible, just not mathematically impossible.

[Lord Ludwig]

Ah, and here are the quarter-finals.

Black Dragon (1) 3

Ancient Ent (9) 0


Royal Thorn (12) 0

Green Dragon (4) 3



Red Dragon (3) 0

Archdemon (6) 3


Cyclops (7) 1

T-Rex (2) 3

All quite settled matches, I think, now that the bigguns are starting to mix together. The ancient ent doesn't stand much of a chance against the black dragon due to double fire damage; the royal thorn who caused so much discussion goes down to the green dragon in a few rounds; the red dragon may have higher ranking (due to leadership, remember) but the high fire resistance of the archdemon makes the dragon's bite quite ineffective, and so we have seeded player nr. 3 not reaching the semi's. The only match I think could require some deeper analysis is cyclops vs t-rex. There are a lot of variables here (the t-rex being tyrant and terrible, the resistances and special attacks of the cyclops) but my opinion is the cyclops is the first one to go down.

[pavned]

The cyclops vs TRex is a tough one in my opinion.

The thing is, Cyclops get 2 free turns before the TRex gets to him, dealing about
65 x 2 = 130 damage.

Then the Cyclops got 2 no-retaliation attack one for 90 and the other for 70, 160 damages

so the TRex goes from 1000 to 710 health where he can'T deal any damage to the Cyclops

meaning you go on a 710 health creatures vs 670

The Trex do deals a lot more damages, the thing is that I'm not sure how to calculate the 30% loss to the Cyclops defense for the Tyrant skill of the Trex.

I thhink the Cyclops got about 6 rounds to finish the Tyrant before the Trex finishes him! Is that enough? For those 6 round he'll do (here not sure about retaliation damage) 65*6 (turns before being killed) 390 damges from retaliation. The cyclops can get a total of 2 push attack and 2 stun attack, meaning 1 push and 1 stun additional attack for a total of 160 damages.

so that's a total of 550 damages not enough for the 710

The one round where the Cyclops can'T use a no-retaliation attack he'll be more more advise to take the defense stance insuring the fight to go for the 76turns.

But it stills not enough.

Summary:

TRex closes-in on the Cyclops in 2 turns:

- first 2 turns Cyclops deal 130 damages (Trex 870)
- Round 3, Trex deals damages (Cyclops 550), Cyclops retaliate for 65 (Trex 805) and use push deals 90 damages (Trex 715)
- Round 4, Trex deals damages (Cyclops 430), Cyclops retaliate for 65 (Trex 650) and use stun for 70 (Trex 580)
- Round 5, Trex deals damages (Cyclops (310), Cyclops retaliate for 65 (Trex (515) and stand guard
- Round 6, TRex attacks (Cyclops ~250), Cyclops retaliate for 65 (Trex 450) and use push (Trex 360)
- Round 7 Trex attacks (Cyclops 130), Cyclops reataliates for 65 (Trex 295) and use stun (Trex 225)
- Round 8 Trex attacks (Cyclops 10), Cyclops retaliate for 65 (Trex 160) and Attacks before being killed (Trex 95)

In the summary I maxed the damages delt by the Trex to mirror the Tyrant effect.

The Cyclops is toast unless the TRex can't get to him in 2 turns depending of the battlefield, since the Cyclops can move 2 hex before doing his attack.
So if the Cyclops can get 1 more free turn before the Trex can close on him he can win!

Summary

TRex closes-in on the Cyclops in 2 turns:

- first 3 turns Cyclops deal 195 damages (Trex 805)
- Round 4, Trex deals damages (Cyclops 550), Cyclops retaliate for 65 (Trex 740) and use push deals 90 damages (Trex 650)
- Round 5, Trex deals damages (Cyclops 430), Cyclops retaliate for 65 (Trex 585) and use stun for 70 (Trex 515)
- Round 6, Trex deals damages (Cyclops (310), Cyclops retaliate for 65 (Trex (450) and stand guard
- Round 7, TRex attacks (Cyclops ~250), Cyclops retaliate for 65 (Trex 385) and use push (Trex 295)
- Round 8 Trex attacks (Cyclops 130), Cyclops reataliates for 65 (Trex 230) and use stun (Trex 160)
- Round 9 Trex attacks (Cyclops 10), Cyclops retaliate for 65 (Trex 95) and Attacks before being killed (Trex 30)

With a little bit of luck, the Cyclops can get that extra 30 damages from the free attacks and 2 pushes

But that's a lot of if! So it's a good assumption that the Trex win that match

[Zechnophobe]

Cyclops' melee abilies are not 'no retaliation'. Push cannot be used against level 5 units, and stun doesn't prevent retal against level 5 units.
However, He can always move away, and shoot, and has 30% physical resistance to help make up that Attack vs Defense. I think this one is knowable, though it depends on how 'terrible' works.

Hmm, although the 'stun' status effect will lower the attack and defense of the tirex when it is used. But Stun also has only one charge.

[pavned]

Cyclops' melee abilies are not 'no retaliation'. Push cannot be used against level 5 units, and stun doesn't prevent retal against level 5 units.
However, He can always move away, and shoot, and has 30% physical resistance to help make up that Attack vs Defense. I think this one is knowable, though it depends on how 'terrible' works.

Hmm, although the 'stun' status effect will lower the attack and defense of the tirex when it is used. But Stun also has only one charge.

Didn't knew about the ability of Cyclops vs level 5 units, tought they would work! (Is it in the manual or did you experienced it?)

Well, there's always the movement then throw a rock strategy, but then there's not enough damage dealt by the Cyclops to even start thinking about killing the TRex.

[Zechnophobe]

Empirical information. You'll notice it a lot if you use dragons(they will stun you, and you'll still retaliate). Then if you use Cyclopses in the decently late game, you will also notice you cannot PUSH against level 5's like Demons (very annoying).

[Lord Ludwig]

On to the semifinals:


Black Dragon (1) 3

Green Dragon (4) 1




Archdemon (6) 1

T-Rex (2) 3

In both cases there's room for discussion. The BD has overall better stats than the GD, but the fact that the BD does fire damage while the GD does physical counters some of this. In the former topic where I first launched this idea general consensus seemed to lean towards the green dragon winning through the use of capture target. Things are not so clean cut however. Considering the respective AT/DE ratios (7/6 for the BD, 53/70 for the GD) and resistances (BD resists 20% of GD damage, GD resists 50% of BD damage) it still turns out that the BD does more damage, ranging from 64 to 75 and 112 on a critical against a range of 48-66 and a crit of 99 for the GD. Special attacks do respectively 78 (capture target), 30-42 (mana leech) and 64-81 (rain of fire). So if both sides attack and use their SA, countign average dmg and no crits, it should go like this:

round 1 BD can't use Rof cause GD on border of map) attacks for 70, gets countered for 57; GD uses CT for 78

Health: BD 865 GD 730

round 2 BD uses RoF for 73, GD uses ML for 36

Health: BD 829 GD 657

round 3 BD attacks for 70 counter 57, GD attacks for 57 counter 70

Health: BD 715 GD 517

round 4 BD attacks for 70 counter 57, GD uses CT 78

Health: BD 580 GD 447

round 5 BD uses RoF 73, GD attacks 57 counter 70

Health BD 523 GD 304

round 6 BD attacks 70 counter 57, GD uses ML 36

Health BD 430 GD 234

round 7 BD attacks 70 counter 57, GD uses CT 78

Health BD 295 GD 164

round 8 BD uses RoF 73, GD attacks 57 counter 70

Health BD 238 GD 21

round 9 BD attacks and kills GD

Now there are 3 occasions on which the GD attacks normally, taking more damage than it dishes out. Would he do better defending? I ignore exactly how many defense points he gains and if they extend to the next round. If they do then average damage from the BD could be lower, say 60 on a normal attack, 62 with RoF. In this case how would their healths be at round 8? BD would have 171 more, GD 210 more from avoided counters, 20 less from reduced dmg. So lets say:

round 8 Health BD 409 GD 251

round 9 BD attacks 60 counter 57 GD defends

Health BD 352 GD 191

round 10 BD attacks 60 counter 57 GD uses CT 78

Health BD 217 GD 131

round 11 BD uses RoF 73 GS uses ML 36

Health BD 181 GD 58

round 12 BD attacks and kills GD

So it seems defending gets the GD 3 more rounds of life, but that's it.

Now the above does not take in account several things:

1) as I said maybe the GD gains more than +10 for defending, but even +20 would not be enough to make a difference, I think

2) can GD maybe use the grid so as to make RoF unusable?

3) Is the BD actually vulnerable to ML?

4) All above does not consider criticals. Since the BD attacks normally 5 times in case 1 (against 3) and 7 (against 0) in case 2 before delivering the coupe de grace, and since the BD has 17 % critical, it seems likely especially in case 2 he WILL deliver a hefty 112 critical damage at some point speeding the GD demise up. Actually not getting a critical at 17% in 7 attempts has only about a 26,8 % chance of happening.

So I think, contrary to what was said before, that the BD - at least up to the final - keeps true to his role of ranking number one.

Edit: it actually seems I miscounted the number of times the GD attacks normally in scenario 1, which is 4 instead of 3. The result of this however is solely that the GD in scenario 2 goes down on round 13 instead of 12.

[pavned]

With the early elimination of the Ancient ent and the Bone Dragon, this tournament has become a replica of the Federer's tennis-era before Nadal join the ATP. We already know who's gonna win!

The Archdemon!

Too bad cause for me the Archdemon is like Jim Courrier, great tennis player, I just don't like the guy!

[Lord Ludwig]

Now for the archdemon - T-rex analysis.

Some big unsettled issues here: does terrify work on the archdemon? I think not. Does tyrant work? I guess it does. Does halve work on the health of a single opponent? Someone claimed it does, I did not check it out. But leadership of the T is higher, so it does not really matter. Does Primal fear work on the AD? He has lower leadership, so it should, but I suppose he shakes off the loss of AP.

So let's see... AT/DE ratio for the AD is 6/5. AT/DE for the T is 65/66 but if tyrant work it becomes 65/46. Physical resistance is 15& for the T, 20% for the AD. An ordinary attack would thus score a damage range of 89-100 for the AD with a crit of 150, 90-135 crit 202 for the T. Averages of 95 and 113 respectively. Plus the T can do a free average of 25 points with no retaliation every 3 rounds starting at 1 through PF. This also means the AD, which is faster, can't keep distance infinitely. Since attacking does not seem worthwhile for the AD he can defend to increase his defense, but does he gain enough points that way? And are the bonus points still subjected to tyrant effect?

All in all - and this comes as a big surprise to me - it seems the Archdemon, which in spite of his nr. 6 on the entry list I considered the big favorite, is going to lose. He would have had an easy time against the Black Dragon, but it seems he is not equipped to eliminate the T-rex.

[Lord Ludwig]

With the early elimination of the Ancient ent and the Bone Dragon, this tournament has become a replica of the Federer's tennis-era before Nadal join the ATP. We already know who's gonna win!

The Archdemon!

Too bad cause for me the Archdemon is like Jim Courrier, great tennis player, I just don't like the guy!

Sorry Pavned, I was so persuaded that the Archdemon (which I like a lot actually, I consider him more a sort of McEnroe) was going to win that I mistyped the result in my first entry.

[Lord Ludwig]

With the early elimination of the Ancient ent and the Bone Dragon, this tournament has become a replica of the Federer's tennis-era before Nadal join the ATP. We already know who's gonna win!

The Archdemon!

Ah, and actually it seems - however incomplete and difficult the calculations - that through "halve" the AD would actually beat the ancient ent, the bone dragon and the cyclops. So, aside from the troll by night, it came as quite a surprise when my calculations showed he did not come out a winner against the t-rex. Maybe - but I did not yet make any calculations - also the giant would have stood a fair chance against the archdemon. Immunity to halve sways the balance quite a bit.

[Metathron]

The giant is immune to halve?

Anyway, it's looking more and more (to me at least) that the archdemons are overpowered this time around taking into consideration their characteristics relative to the amount of leadership/gold they require.

[Lord Ludwig]

The giant is immune to halve?

Anyway, it's looking more and more (to me at least) that the archdemons are overpowered this time around taking into consideration their characteristics relative to the amount of leadership/gold they require.

Halve only works on stacks with lower leadership. Since in this tournament every units competes on its own, the 5 units with higher or equal leadership than the archdemon (the 3 dragons, the t-rex, the giant) become immune.

I don't think an archdemon is overpowered. Actually I think, to keep close to how a true archdemon should be, he should also get the summoning ability of the demon. It seems more appropriate to me that an archdemon calls in lesser demons.

[Zechnophobe]

Looks like I called it! (From other thread:)
"3) Tirex looks like it should easily kill an Archdemon in a fight. SO I think our little tournament would depend on fight order. If Black, Red, or Green Dragon takes out the tirex first, archdemon wins. If tirex takes out Archdemon first..."

Tirex kills Archie, Black Dragon wins!

[Lord Ludwig]

And at last, the final:


Black Dragon (1) 3

T-Rex (2) 0

We have nr. 1 and 2 in the final, and still there's some surprise, as many would have expected the green dragon and the archdemon to be protagonists of the final fight. Alas, the final is not up to the tournament and offers little leeway for surprises. The Black Dragon has overall better stats, only health and initiative being equal. Actually the BD, being faster and immune to primal fear, could just finish off the T-rex with RoF keeping distance, but even if they just slug it out, considering the BD has 20% resistance to physical damage whereas the T has 10% vulnerability to fire, the result is quite settled. On average the T does from 84 to 126 points of damage with a critical of 189, but the BD ranges from 154 to 182, critical 273. So in a slugfest it's likely the T goes down in the fifth round. The t-rex could try just defending to raise his DE and count on retaliation but it's extremely unlikely that would change anything - and there's still RoF to take in account.

So that was it, we have a winner, many thanks to anyone who read and/or commented on this little experiment, should anybody wish to pick up the idea and write down the hypothetical results of a round robin tournament, a tournament based on leadership rather than single units, a "double", whatever, I would follow it with curiosity :-)