Maybe they can simulate the failure rates experienced by the United States aircraft Industry?
If we look at the US Aviation industry, 1 in every 182 airframes built from January to October 1943 was a total write off and destroyed in crashes during Ferrying.
We can use today's aviation accident statistics to get a ballpark idea of the number of emergency landings. According to the FAA accident data base, you have ~98% of a making a daylight emergency landing without injury or major damage.
That puts the ballpark figure for emergency landings in the US Aviation industry at 14100 incidents or about 17% of the aircraft produced had an issue which forced termination of the flight in the first few hours of operation.
http://www.usaaf.net/digest/t206.htm
As a base, the average accident rate is about 14% on the initial flight for a new aircraft and 5% on the second flight.
Given the frantic pace of wartime production I would expect that rate to be somewhat higher.
Of course that is just raw data before the newly manufactured aircraft is delivered. Airplanes are complicated machines and it is perfectly normal to have issues in the first few hours of operation.
All Air Forces flew acceptance flights to test new aircraft before accepting them.
Just some facts for you guys to digest! Have fun!
08-29-2011, 01:19 PM
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