Here it is... the Teana Open!

[Lord Ludwig]

And here is the bottom half of round 1

Red Dragon (3) – bye
Scoffer Imp – Furious Goblin 3-0
Polar Bear – Thorn Hunter 3-2
bye – Demoness (30)
Paladin (19) – bye
Gobot – Druid 0-3
Ancient Bear – Pirate 3-0
bye – Royal Griffin (14)
Ogre (11) –bye
Fire Spider – Ghost 0-3
Gorguana – Undead Spider 3-0
bye – Demonologist (22)
Evil Beholder (27) – bye
Forest Fairy – Foreman 0-3
Werewolf Elf – Barbarian 3-0
bye – Archdemon (6)

Cyclops (7) – bye
Goblin – Royal Snake 3-1 retconned to 0-3
Unicorn – Fire Dragonfly 3-0
bye – Horseman (26)
Necromancer (23) – bye
Cursed Ghost – Skeleton 3-0
Orc – Zombie 3-0
bye – Troll (10)
Demon (15) – bye
Dryad – Repair Droid 0-3
Cerberus – Robber 3-0
bye – Brontor (1
Black Knight (31) – bye
Lake Fairy – Hunter 0-3
Bowman – Imp 2-3
bye – T-Rex (2)

Not a lot of tight fights in the first round. The priest should beat the decaying zombie thanks to ranged attacks+holy damage, the veteran orc probably chases fruitlessly after the lake dragonfly but wins hands down in the restricted grid (tie-break), the sea dog has an overall edge on the swordsman. In the bottom half it's a close call between the polar bear and the thorn hunter. The TH is faster and has ranged attack but does abysmal damage, one single hit from the PB means game over. It depends on the grid of course, but I guess the PB will manage to corner the TH and smash it. Close call also between the Imp and the bowman. Also here it depends on the grid, the bigger it is the better the chances of the bowman but my bet is on an average grid the imp closes distance and wins thanks to his no retaliation attack. Last but not least, the very useful (early on in the campaign) royal snake goes down, IMHO, to the goblin, who can keep distance and attack from range.

[pavned]

Goblin win 3 1 against Royal Snake?

How come?

It must be a type, there's no way 1 goblin can kill 1 Royal Snake. The RS can get to the Goblin in 2 turns with his higher initiative and his special attack from afar.

That's max 12 (2 maxed critical attack by Golbin --> 4 x 1,5 x 2 - 12)

The RS got 64 health, menaing he still got 52 health when he start biting out at 6-10 on a the Goblin with his 26 health plus there's chances of poisoning him.

Even if the goblin go for the run-away for 2 hex then throw axes at the RS (he got speed of 3), the higher initiative of the RS means he'll play last and can insure to approach the Goblin in a way that he'll eventualy trapped him. Plus the 2 hex attack of the RS means he'll manage to get a piece of the Goblin from time to time.

[pavned]

I think you kind of understimate the value of initiative in this match up:

Bear vs Marauder : Both same speed meaning that the marauder can always escape the bear with his higher initative.

The bear can only use his running ability once. That means, if the bear plays it well, he can inflict damage to the marauder once for a max 15 (max damage 10 x 1,5 for critical attack)

But the marauder got the swift stroke ability that can be recharge. So the MArauder, with higeher initiative can hit the bear with no-retaliation at the end of turn then escape away for 3 turns and use again that ability inflicting damages. The trick here is that the Marauder can't afford the bear to have him right beside him. If the marauder wants to keep usigng the swift stroke ability without getting attack he needs to keep at least 1 hex between him and the bear all the time. I think it's doable with a unit having higher initiative, you need to plan your movement well.

In the long run I can'T see the bear winning a 5 sets match. For a tie break, the strategy describe above won't work so the bear win. But on a normal grid the MArauder can manage to outrun the bear then hit him then run again enough time to kill the bear.

[dashcunning]

Originally Posted by Lord Ludwig

Last but not least, the very useful (early on in the campaign) royal snake goes down, IMHO, to the goblin, who can keep distance and attack from range.

I don't agree with this. The royal snake has 6 initiative and 3 speed vs the goblin's 5 initiative and 2 speed. The snake would close eventually with a minimum rate of 2 spaces per turn (snake moves 3 closer while goblin moves 1 away and attacks). Realistically, this is 3 per turn as the goblin can't move further away having started on the opposite end of the tennis court.

On average, the royal snake only needs to hit the goblin twice. First hit would be the strike ability which, with 18 attack and 25% crit vs 10 defense, does 14.25 damage. Second hit would be a regular attack which does 12.35 damage.

The goblin is more difficult due to the zeroing in ability. Does it increase attack or damage? It says attack, but there are plenty of mistranslations so it could be damage. Without any zeroing in bonus, a goblin's attack, with 16 attack and 10% crit vs 18 defense and 10% physical resistance, does 2.78 damage (24! hits to kill). If zeroing in increases attack, attack would increase by 4.8 (is this rounded up or down? what a mess) per round eventually reaching 78 attack vs 18 defense for a maximum damage of 8.91 (8 hits, still quite a few). If zeroing in increases damage, damage would increase by ... (this is a mess as well) lets say 0.83 (2.78 * 0.3) per turn. 10 hits to kill.

I don't see a goblin living long enough to get in that many hits unless the court is VERY large.

[Lord Ludwig]

Many thanks for the first comments!

Criticism by now is on two matches: 1) marauder vs bear; 2) goblin vs royal snake. I'll handle the more complex case first.

1) here I am not persuaded. Considering relative AT/DE ratio (14/8 for the bear, 12/16 for the marauder), the equal speed, the average damage the bear does (8.5 becoming 14.875 with AT/DE ratio) compared to that done by the marauder (4.5 becoming 3.5), the critical damage the bear does (a weighted 24.75), the health of the bear being 60 to the marauder's 35, it seems a dead sentence for the marauder. If he uses swift stroke then don't forget the bear has the "brutal" skill, meaning his AT doubles for that round, meaning he doesn't counterstrike but his following hit will do an average damage of 25.5 and a critical of 45. Maybe the marauder could use his higher initiative better just defending, but it still looks like curtains for him.

2) here instead I am persuaded. Actually the goblin's speed is 3 and not 2, but in turn I misread the RS's speed, thinking it was 2 like the other snakes when in fact it's 3. This means the goblin cannot keep distance and keep hitting at the same time, so indeed I will use my privilege as organizer, sponsor and supreme judge of the Teana Open to retcon the result of the first round and give a 3-o score to the royal snakes
It still remains an open question if the RS would have won if indeed the goblin had been one unit of speed faster like I erroneously thought he was.

[Zechnophobe]

Marauder vs Bear:

Start of Turn:
IF: Maurader is more than 2 squares away from bear He waits.
Bear moves.
If he can use no retal ability, he moves to position to do so.
IF: Marauder is not more than 2 squares away from bear, or is unable to use no retaliation ability: He runs away, out of range.

He shouldn't lose, he may not ever even get hit.

Speaking of.. how Does a Polar bear lose to a Thorn Hunter? ( mean, at all, you have it as 3-2 only, like it is a close combat or something).
PB has higher init, so it is similar to Marauder. Wait at beginning of turn, and then after thorn moves, move towards it.

Activate running only once you are 4 squares away. Should be a snap. It isn't like the thorn has inifinite retreat distance to keep backpedaling through.

[dashcunning]

Originally Posted by Zechnophobe

Marauder vs Bear:

Start of Turn:
IF: Maurader is more than 2 squares away from bear He waits.
Bear moves.
If he can use no retal ability, he moves to position to do so.
IF: Marauder is not more than 2 squares away from bear, or is unable to use no retaliation ability: He runs away, out of range.

He shouldn't lose, he may not ever even get hit.

That would only work once. Their speed is the same, the bear always moves 2 closer every turn. Once the bear gets too close, the marauder has to move 2 away every turn to maintain distance or he will get hit. If the marauder is moving 2 every turn to match the bear moving 2 every turn, then the marauder has no action points left with to attack.

The higher init would allow the marauder to run when his ability isn't ready and avoid the bear on those turns. This means the marauder gets 2 hits to every bear hit. The no retaliation ability and the retaliation to the bear's hit. Whether or not that's enough to kill the bear, I can't be bothered to check. I already did my math for the day.


Edit: I've attached an excel spreadsheet I made. It has all the various stats of different units and does some calculations as well. Damage per Leadership (adjusted for attack and crit), Health per unit (adjusted for defense), Total damage resistance (adjusted for defense and physical resistance). You can plug in your hero's attack/defense/crit/resistance/extra damage (assassin's dagger or whip of pain) and enemy attack/defense at the top. It is lacking the special abilities and talents however.

I figure most people would have something similar, but if not they can use mine. I find it helpful so others might as well.

[dashcunning]

Originally Posted by Lord Ludwig

Actually the goblin's speed is 3 and not 2

Goblin's speed really is 2, honest, cross my heart and hope to die. Furious goblins have a speed of 3, but those are the melee ones. Maybe that's where the confusion is coming from. Or maybe my game is just busted.

[MaroonMaurader]

The Bear definitely beats the Maurader. Both have speed of 2, and the bear clearly wins the tiebreak, so the bear has no need to close to range with the Maurader. If the grid is infinite, the Bear can just turn and run and it's a stalemate; then bear wins tiebreak. If the grid is finite, the bear can gradually herd the Maurader into a corner. The maurader cannot slip by the bear unless there is very unusual terrain (i.e., a loop around which the Maurader can run but the bear cannot) or the maurader is willing to take a hit for it's trouble. AND if the bear is commanded well he can arrange so that the Maurader will always have to suffer a bear attack for each time he wastes a turn not moving so he can use his no-retal attack.

I'm pretty sure the Veteran Orc can win vs. Lake Dragonfly without tiebreak - he only needs to get one hit. If he saves his run ability until he's in the right position, on most grids he can get that one hit in. On an exceptionally large or obstacle-ridden one he can't, but those are... exceptional.

The Thorn Hunter shouldn't even come close to beating the Polar Bear - the Thorn Hunter does 1-2 damage, with attack 4. The polar bear has defense 26, so the effective damage is basically 1. It would need to hit the polar bear 130 times to kill it. Meanwhile, the polar bear need only get in one hit. And since the polar bear has the run ability plus higher initiative, the polar bear can hit the thorn if the thorn ever ends a turn within a radius of 6 of the polar bear (polar bear waits. Thorn moves. If the thorn is within 6, polar bear uses run to close 4 spaces, then moves the remaining 2 at the start of the next turn). On an infinitely large grid the thorn wins, but even on a large 12x12 grid the polar bear can simply stand in the middle, then slowly inch towards the thorn hunter cutting off space until it gets the kill.

Bowmen vs. imps is definitely strongly in the imps favor. The imps always strike first due to higher initiative; thanks to throwing two fireballs while they close the gap they'll get a hit in every turn, their attacks do more damage (on average) than the bowmen, they have almost equal health (32 to 34), and once the imps close the gap if they're smart they'll move right up next to the bowmen before launching strike-and-return attacks... meaning they can corner the bowmen, and on the 5th, 7th, 9th, etc. turns (possibly 6th, 8th, 10th, etc. or 4th, 6th, 8th, etc. depending on the size of the grid) the bowmen will be stuck in melee range - meaning they get no attack that turn. I'd predict the bowman die around turn 7, by which time I'd expect them to have done maybe 18 damage to the imps. And that's assuming the bowmen don't take any burning damage over time from the imp's fireball, which they might.

Otherwise I think I agree with all your judgements.