Here it is... the Teana Open!

[Lord Ludwig]

Originally Posted by dashcunning

The royal thorn generates, on average, 28 thorns (warrior or hunter) every 3 turns. The AV can kill, on average, 9 warriors or 15 hunters every 3 turns. Not even close to keeping up.

I agree that the vampires were quite unlucky with their entry rank, and that without germination the RT wouldn't stand a chance. However it gives 150-300 worth of leadership in thorns, which translates into a minimum of 18, a maximum of 37, an average (as you said) of 28. The point is not how many thorns the AV can kill, because indeed he can't keep up, the point is: does the AV have even the tiniest chance of finishing the RT before enough thorns are around to kill the AV in one round? Indeed he DOES have a chance, but that would require the RT to constantly summon the bare minimum of the 150-300 range and the AV to score 17 criticals in 19 rounds. Such event is clearly so unlikely as to be close to impossible. Once again, a 3-1 does not indicate that team A wins 75% of the matches, only that his victory is not completely and utterly guaranteed.

Ah, and let's not forget the AV DID beat the only top ten player to be eliminated early on, the giant.

[MaroonMaurader]

Once the Royal Thorns have at least 3 stacks of thorns, and at least one of them is thorn-hunters, they can use their minions to wall themselves in against the side of the map. The ancient vampires can try to maneuver themselves to lengthen the royal thorn's path to the wall, but starting with turn 4 the royal thorn can use summoned thorns to hold a path open and the ancient vampire can no longer stall; even before that the royal thorn can advance one space by tacking around the ancient vampire on turns 2 and 3.

So it's actually less likely than at first glance - the AV must get 17 critical hits in 19 rounds, at a 17% chance of a critical per attack; the royal thorn must summon no more than 21 thorns in any given germinate, AND those thorns must always be thorn warriors, not thorn hunters (~8% chance each). Giving total odds of success of roughly 3 in 1,000,000,000,000,000,000.

[Lord Ludwig]

Originally Posted by MaroonMaurader

So it's actually less likely than at first glance - the AV must get 17 critical hits in 19 rounds, at a 17% chance of a critical per attack; the royal thorn must summon no more than 21 thorns in any given germinate, AND those thorns must always be thorn warriors, not thorn hunters (~8% chance each). Giving total odds of success of roughly 3 in 1,000,000,000,000,000,000.

Indeed, as I said it's so unlikely as to be virtually impossible, just not mathematically impossible.

[Lord Ludwig]

Ah, and here are the quarter-finals.

Black Dragon (1) 3

Ancient Ent (9) 0


Royal Thorn (12) 0

Green Dragon (4) 3



Red Dragon (3) 0

Archdemon (6) 3


Cyclops (7) 1

T-Rex (2) 3

All quite settled matches, I think, now that the bigguns are starting to mix together. The ancient ent doesn't stand much of a chance against the black dragon due to double fire damage; the royal thorn who caused so much discussion goes down to the green dragon in a few rounds; the red dragon may have higher ranking (due to leadership, remember) but the high fire resistance of the archdemon makes the dragon's bite quite ineffective, and so we have seeded player nr. 3 not reaching the semi's. The only match I think could require some deeper analysis is cyclops vs t-rex. There are a lot of variables here (the t-rex being tyrant and terrible, the resistances and special attacks of the cyclops) but my opinion is the cyclops is the first one to go down.

[pavned]

The cyclops vs TRex is a tough one in my opinion.

The thing is, Cyclops get 2 free turns before the TRex gets to him, dealing about
65 x 2 = 130 damage.

Then the Cyclops got 2 no-retaliation attack one for 90 and the other for 70, 160 damages

so the TRex goes from 1000 to 710 health where he can'T deal any damage to the Cyclops

meaning you go on a 710 health creatures vs 670

The Trex do deals a lot more damages, the thing is that I'm not sure how to calculate the 30% loss to the Cyclops defense for the Tyrant skill of the Trex.

I thhink the Cyclops got about 6 rounds to finish the Tyrant before the Trex finishes him! Is that enough? For those 6 round he'll do (here not sure about retaliation damage) 65*6 (turns before being killed) 390 damges from retaliation. The cyclops can get a total of 2 push attack and 2 stun attack, meaning 1 push and 1 stun additional attack for a total of 160 damages.

so that's a total of 550 damages not enough for the 710

The one round where the Cyclops can'T use a no-retaliation attack he'll be more more advise to take the defense stance insuring the fight to go for the 76turns.

But it stills not enough.

Summary:

TRex closes-in on the Cyclops in 2 turns:

- first 2 turns Cyclops deal 130 damages (Trex 870)
- Round 3, Trex deals damages (Cyclops 550), Cyclops retaliate for 65 (Trex 805) and use push deals 90 damages (Trex 715)
- Round 4, Trex deals damages (Cyclops 430), Cyclops retaliate for 65 (Trex 650) and use stun for 70 (Trex 580)
- Round 5, Trex deals damages (Cyclops (310), Cyclops retaliate for 65 (Trex (515) and stand guard
- Round 6, TRex attacks (Cyclops ~250), Cyclops retaliate for 65 (Trex 450) and use push (Trex 360)
- Round 7 Trex attacks (Cyclops 130), Cyclops reataliates for 65 (Trex 295) and use stun (Trex 225)
- Round 8 Trex attacks (Cyclops 10), Cyclops retaliate for 65 (Trex 160) and Attacks before being killed (Trex 95)

In the summary I maxed the damages delt by the Trex to mirror the Tyrant effect.

The Cyclops is toast unless the TRex can't get to him in 2 turns depending of the battlefield, since the Cyclops can move 2 hex before doing his attack.
So if the Cyclops can get 1 more free turn before the Trex can close on him he can win!

Summary

TRex closes-in on the Cyclops in 2 turns:

- first 3 turns Cyclops deal 195 damages (Trex 805)
- Round 4, Trex deals damages (Cyclops 550), Cyclops retaliate for 65 (Trex 740) and use push deals 90 damages (Trex 650)
- Round 5, Trex deals damages (Cyclops 430), Cyclops retaliate for 65 (Trex 585) and use stun for 70 (Trex 515)
- Round 6, Trex deals damages (Cyclops (310), Cyclops retaliate for 65 (Trex (450) and stand guard
- Round 7, TRex attacks (Cyclops ~250), Cyclops retaliate for 65 (Trex 385) and use push (Trex 295)
- Round 8 Trex attacks (Cyclops 130), Cyclops reataliates for 65 (Trex 230) and use stun (Trex 160)
- Round 9 Trex attacks (Cyclops 10), Cyclops retaliate for 65 (Trex 95) and Attacks before being killed (Trex 30)

With a little bit of luck, the Cyclops can get that extra 30 damages from the free attacks and 2 pushes

But that's a lot of if! So it's a good assumption that the Trex win that match

[Zechnophobe]

Cyclops' melee abilies are not 'no retaliation'. Push cannot be used against level 5 units, and stun doesn't prevent retal against level 5 units.
However, He can always move away, and shoot, and has 30% physical resistance to help make up that Attack vs Defense. I think this one is knowable, though it depends on how 'terrible' works.

Hmm, although the 'stun' status effect will lower the attack and defense of the tirex when it is used. But Stun also has only one charge.

[pavned]

Originally Posted by Zechnophobe

Cyclops' melee abilies are not 'no retaliation'. Push cannot be used against level 5 units, and stun doesn't prevent retal against level 5 units.
However, He can always move away, and shoot, and has 30% physical resistance to help make up that Attack vs Defense. I think this one is knowable, though it depends on how 'terrible' works.

Hmm, although the 'stun' status effect will lower the attack and defense of the tirex when it is used. But Stun also has only one charge.

Didn't knew about the ability of Cyclops vs level 5 units, tought they would work! (Is it in the manual or did you experienced it?)

Well, there's always the movement then throw a rock strategy, but then there's not enough damage dealt by the Cyclops to even start thinking about killing the TRex.

[Zechnophobe]

Empirical information. You'll notice it a lot if you use dragons(they will stun you, and you'll still retaliate). Then if you use Cyclopses in the decently late game, you will also notice you cannot PUSH against level 5's like Demons (very annoying).

[Lord Ludwig]

On to the semifinals:


Black Dragon (1) 3

Green Dragon (4) 1




Archdemon (6) 1

T-Rex (2) 3

In both cases there's room for discussion. The BD has overall better stats than the GD, but the fact that the BD does fire damage while the GD does physical counters some of this. In the former topic where I first launched this idea general consensus seemed to lean towards the green dragon winning through the use of capture target. Things are not so clean cut however. Considering the respective AT/DE ratios (7/6 for the BD, 53/70 for the GD) and resistances (BD resists 20% of GD damage, GD resists 50% of BD damage) it still turns out that the BD does more damage, ranging from 64 to 75 and 112 on a critical against a range of 48-66 and a crit of 99 for the GD. Special attacks do respectively 78 (capture target), 30-42 (mana leech) and 64-81 (rain of fire). So if both sides attack and use their SA, countign average dmg and no crits, it should go like this:

round 1 BD can't use Rof cause GD on border of map) attacks for 70, gets countered for 57; GD uses CT for 78

Health: BD 865 GD 730

round 2 BD uses RoF for 73, GD uses ML for 36

Health: BD 829 GD 657

round 3 BD attacks for 70 counter 57, GD attacks for 57 counter 70

Health: BD 715 GD 517

round 4 BD attacks for 70 counter 57, GD uses CT 78

Health: BD 580 GD 447

round 5 BD uses RoF 73, GD attacks 57 counter 70

Health BD 523 GD 304

round 6 BD attacks 70 counter 57, GD uses ML 36

Health BD 430 GD 234

round 7 BD attacks 70 counter 57, GD uses CT 78

Health BD 295 GD 164

round 8 BD uses RoF 73, GD attacks 57 counter 70

Health BD 238 GD 21

round 9 BD attacks and kills GD

Now there are 3 occasions on which the GD attacks normally, taking more damage than it dishes out. Would he do better defending? I ignore exactly how many defense points he gains and if they extend to the next round. If they do then average damage from the BD could be lower, say 60 on a normal attack, 62 with RoF. In this case how would their healths be at round 8? BD would have 171 more, GD 210 more from avoided counters, 20 less from reduced dmg. So lets say:

round 8 Health BD 409 GD 251

round 9 BD attacks 60 counter 57 GD defends

Health BD 352 GD 191

round 10 BD attacks 60 counter 57 GD uses CT 78

Health BD 217 GD 131

round 11 BD uses RoF 73 GS uses ML 36

Health BD 181 GD 58

round 12 BD attacks and kills GD

So it seems defending gets the GD 3 more rounds of life, but that's it.

Now the above does not take in account several things:

1) as I said maybe the GD gains more than +10 for defending, but even +20 would not be enough to make a difference, I think

2) can GD maybe use the grid so as to make RoF unusable?

3) Is the BD actually vulnerable to ML?

4) All above does not consider criticals. Since the BD attacks normally 5 times in case 1 (against 3) and 7 (against 0) in case 2 before delivering the coupe de grace, and since the BD has 17 % critical, it seems likely especially in case 2 he WILL deliver a hefty 112 critical damage at some point speeding the GD demise up. Actually not getting a critical at 17% in 7 attempts has only about a 26,8 % chance of happening.

So I think, contrary to what was said before, that the BD - at least up to the final - keeps true to his role of ranking number one.

Edit: it actually seems I miscounted the number of times the GD attacks normally in scenario 1, which is 4 instead of 3. The result of this however is solely that the GD in scenario 2 goes down on round 13 instead of 12.

[pavned]

With the early elimination of the Ancient ent and the Bone Dragon, this tournament has become a replica of the Federer's tennis-era before Nadal join the ATP. We already know who's gonna win!

The Archdemon!

Too bad cause for me the Archdemon is like Jim Courrier, great tennis player, I just don't like the guy!