Quote:
Originally Posted by Swagger7
The reason Rommel's supply lines were cut is because the British broke the Enigma codes & always knew where the convoys were. The Channel is too narrow for that to work (not enough time to decode & send someone to intercept). Also, if the Germans had air superiority they could defend their convoys from above, unlike in the Med. As far as stopping the German army at London goes, remember my scenario had the forces at Dunkirk getting wiped out. Early on in the BoB the British literally had no ground forces apart from the forces that returned from France. This is why the Home Guard was training with pitchforks and shovels. If the French & British armies couldn't stop them on the mainland, I don't think a bunch of ill trained guys with hunting rifles and shotguns would have even slowed them down. Again though, we're talking about a scenario where Hitler acted more intelligently and the Luftwaffe gained early air superiority. (There are some who argue that they were very close when they redirected their attacks to London)
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As you said this is all hypothetical, so it largely a matter of opinion, that being said, forgive me while I dork out
I disagree about the English use of Enigma decrypts in the Mediterranean being critical to cutting Rommel's supply lines as English Intelligence had to use those decrypts very sparingly lest the Germans catch on. Mainly they were using them for strategic applications and not tactical ones. Also when you have overwhelming and unchallenged naval superiority, omnipotent intelligence of the kind Ultra provided isn't necessary to interdict the enemy's shipping. This really is a matter of opinion, but I am unconvinced that the Luftwaffe could have stopped the Royal Navy completely from carrying out its mission, and I am certain they couldn't have stopped the RN at night. I take your points about the Japanese victories against undefended capital ships early in WW2, but recall that the Japanese spent a lot of time training for that very mission. I doubt the Luftwaffe would have been as effective against the Royal Navy, but I admittedly I can't prove that.
As for the home guard, they were not the only military formation in England, there were several divisions of the regular British Army that never went to France available for defense. The Home Guard were more analogous to the Volksstorm than any regular army unit, hence the pitchforks. Also England had built an extensive line of fortifications that would have greatly frustrated German armor; I don't think that one should assume a rapid German breakout based on these factors. Don't forget, we are assuming that operation Eagle would have worked, meaning that this hypothetical Sea-Lion would have taken place in August or September of 1940, not June immediately after Dunkirk, so the British Army would have been much more prepared than you are suggesting.
I guess it really all comes down to a few critical issues, if the Luftwaffe could have safe guarded the German supply lines against the RN, and if the Germans could have gotten off the beaches rapidly, and if the Germans could have gotten enough shipping to supply their troops and if they could have seized a port early that could harbor their shipping, then yes Sea Lion could have succeeded, but thats a lot of ifs and that why I would give it a low probability.
At any rate theres a lot of good points on both side of the argument, check out the
Wikipedia article, its pretty interesting.