proof on the common folk knowledge on destiny, ugly lottery numbers

[raaaid]

Originally Posted by WTE_Galway

Are you sure your not just creating a variant of the Monty Hall problem ?

o thank so much galway i finally figure out, i used to disbelieve this totally now i see i was wrong:

when picking the first door the most likely is the car is not there

so the presenter opening a door which it isnt is telling you most likely where it is

i hope others beside me and you see the beauty of this problem

edit:

imagine the game there are a trillion doors

in only one you find true love and all your dreamins come true

in all the ohters theres eteran fire

say pick one:

the first door

the devil opens all the doors except the one you pick and other

he asks you:

do you want to swap?

well i guess rectify is from wise men

of course you could have a twisted mind and since he is a devil think he is trying to fool you for you got it right at first

edit:


there are 3 doors only one with a prize

the previous week the presentor revealed a goat

so on the day you play there aare only 2 doors left but you think there are 3 since you missed the show last week

the presentor ask you pick a door:

you say number 3

the prsentor says: seems we have a dumb concursant number 3 is not an option pick other

you say number two

the presentor says:

do you wanna switch

you should switch and youll have a bigger than 50% chance to win

youre gonna pick a left door 2/3 of times and youre gonna show your lack of memeory 1/3

on the times you show lack of memory picking the already opened door its a 50% chance since the opening of the door event is proven to have already passed pseudoparadoxically

but on the times that the event of the opening is percieved as just hapening for what your info is worth due to missing the previous show
well when this peculiarity of info happens if you switch you win 66% of times

so with the switch trick and pretending retard you have 2/3 of times a 66% chance of winning the car and on a 1/3 when pseudoparadox happens a 50%

edit:

based on the monty hall i just made a program that foresees the future

re:
'this is the door of 3 behind behind which it is the prize
a=math.GetRandomNumber(3)
'this is the door the host discarded the previous week
b= Math.GetRandomNumber(3)
'this is the door number you pick without having wathced the show the previous week
'and not knowing a door has been discarded
c= Math.GetRandomNumber(3)
'this is in case you pick the discraded by the host door by
'which you would be sent to sleep and start over next week
If b=c Then
Goto re
EndIf
'there are two left doors so its a 50% chance

If a=c Then
'If you get the right door right you win one coin
bob=bob+1
Else
'if you get the wrong door you lose one coin
bob=bob-1
EndIf
'remember its a 50% chance there being two door, if you win you win one if you lose you lose one
'now you can run the program and check how bad you lose for not swithcing door
TextWindow.WriteLine(bob)
Goto re