Mustang accident

[winny]

Originally Posted by IamNotDavid

No, video of aircraft crashing into the ground is definitely bad. There is no way to paint a smiley face on that pig.

That happens a quite lot. Commercial, private, Military - Planes crash.

Originally Posted by IamNotDavid

You can stand by it all you want, but you're still wrong. 1/47 is not a "freak" event.

It is a freak accident, it's never happened before, 1/47 is misleading, it's too small a number. You could theoretically have 100 more Reno air races and it never happen again.

You really want to know how much of a freak then work it out. Assuming it was caused by the trim tab failing.
You'll need,
the probability of the same failiure happening again.
the probability of it happening at the same point in the race, (so you'll need to know what percentage of the race is run directly in front of the crowd)
the probability of the same result from the failiure (we already know that this happened to P-51 'voodoo chile' and the result was he went up to 9,000 feet, not into the crowd)
Then add all these together. That's the probability of it happening again.
It's an enormous number.
So again, how is it not a freak accident? None of the other deaths were caused by the same set of circumstances. You're assuming all deaths have the same cause, they don't.

The deaths are the result not the cause, you can't measure the result and then use it as an argument for cause.

Originally Posted by winny

That happens a quite lot. Commercial, private, Military - Planes crash.

They don't crash as frequently as Reno planes, or for such a pointless reason.

Originally Posted by winny

It is a freak accident, it's never happened before, 1/47 is misleading, it's too small a number. You could theoretically have 100 more Reno air races and it never happen again.

But it didn't happen 100 times, it only happened 47 times, so that's the number we're going to use. 1/47 is not freakish in any way, nor is it misleading. It's reality.

Originally Posted by winny

You're assuming all deaths have the same cause, they don't.

The deaths are the result not the cause, you can't measure the result and then use it as an argument for cause.

I'm not assuming anything, I'm just counting the dead, and the cause is very well known. It's Reno.

[winny]

Originally Posted by IamNotDavid

They don't crash as frequently as Reno planes, or for such a pointless reason.

Pointless to you. Not to them, or they wouldn't have been there? Get it?
If it was pointless to them then they wouldn't be there, what would be the point? The point for them is to win.

Originally Posted by IamNotDavid

But it didn't happen 100 times, it only happened 47 times, so that's the number we're going to use. 1/47 is not freakish in any way, nor is it misleading. It's reality.

Now you're just deflecting, you seem to have a grasp of numbers, so I'll ask again, what's the probability of this happening again? I'll give you a clue, it's not 1 in 47. Not even close.

You're clinging on to 1 in 47, it's irrelevant, it could be 1 in a million and it just happened to happen on the 47th time.
Should we ban all transatlantic passenger shipping, based on the fact that the Titanic sank on her maiden voyage? Hundreds of deaths for 1 event..


Why haven't we seen these P-51's falling out of the sky every 47th flight? According to you there's a 1 in 47 chance of this happening, it's wrong. You are manipulating the numbers. How many modified P-51's have crashed because of the same (non freak) problem?

Originally Posted by IamNotDavid

I'm not assuming anything, I'm just counting the dead, and the cause is very well known. It's Reno.

When I 'just counted the dead' (ie:deaths per year) you said I shouldn't.
The cause was an accident.

Also your assumption that nobody knew that there was a posibility of danger being there is nonsense. It's a niche 'sport' and the people who were there knew what they were watching. To think otherwise is naive

Originally Posted by winny

Now you're just deflecting, you seem to have a grasp of numbers, so I'll ask again, what's the probability of this happening again? I'll give you a clue, it's not 1 in 47. Not even close.

Since 1 in 47 is the example we have seen, that's the example we're going to use. Trying to pretend it wasn't 1 in 47 is deflecting (and moronic).

Originally Posted by winny

You're clinging on to 1 in 47, it's irrelevant, it could be 1 in a million and it just happened to happen on the 47th time.

It could be 1 in 1 billion, but it wasn't. It was 1 in 47. We can only go by the stats available, not by the ones you pull out of your butt.

Originally Posted by winny

Should we ban all transatlantic passenger shipping, based on the fact that the Titanic sank on her maiden voyage? Hundreds of deaths for 1 event..

No, but we can make sure there are enough life boats for everyone on board. If that isn't possible, then we find a different way to do things.

Originally Posted by winny

Why haven't we seen these P-51's falling out of the sky every 47th flight? According to you there's a 1 in 47 chance of this happening, it's wrong. You are manipulating the numbers. How many modified P-51's have crashed because of the same (non freak) problem?

I didn't say anything about 51s falling out of the sky every 47th flight. I have no idea where you got that.

Originally Posted by winny

Also your assumption that nobody knew that there was a posibility of danger being there is nonsense. It's a niche 'sport' and the people who were there knew what they were watching. To think otherwise is naive

The assumption is based on what has been posted in here by pro-Reno people. I'm very confident that it is accurate.