Quote:
Originally Posted by RPS69
Furio, what you are doing is very similar to some religious man, that was very upset with some enlightnend frenchman that demonstrated God's non-existance.
In revenge, he demonstrated Napoleon non-existance while he was still alive. To the point that he confirmed the truth of his thesis after knowing Napoleon's death, stating that before demonstrating his thesis was wrong, they preferred to kill Napoleon, so to not have the need to counter demonstrate nothing...
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RPS, the story about Napoleon is interesting and funny, and says a lot about the times we live in. That said, my English must be very bad, if an exercise in scepticism gives the feeling of a religious zealot. In any case, I don’t take lightly people’s feelings, so let me say something that should be obvious: I respect everyone’s opinion, no matter how much I disagree, and I never duel intentionally with anyone. I’ve read many interesting points in this thread, food for thoughts and incentive for research. I thank again everyone for this, Majorfailure included.
Quote:
Originally Posted by RPS69
Statistics could always be arranged on a convenient way, to afirm whatever you want.
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I disagree. To demonstrate whatever you want you need to falsify numbers, and I didn’t do that. Moreover, I didn’t use complicate statistic methods or tricks, just simple, elementary math. And I never talked about 2,500 Rudels unleashed on Earth, a frightening thought!
Perhaps I was unclear, perhaps there’s something wrong in my reasoning, so it’s wiser to take a fresh start. We have these numbers.
2,500 missions claimed by Rudel.
30 times shot down, as above.
519 tank kills, as above.
Now we need the approximate number of tanks fielded by Russia. As usual, the net gives a lot of different numbers. Somewhere I found 124,560 tanks produced by Soviet Union from January 41 to December 45. Some should be subtracted, being built after war’s end, but lend lease tanks should be added. I propose the estimate number below.
130,000 tanks fielded by Soviet Union during the war.
Some simple math gives us these results.
251 Rudels would have destroyed all 130,000 tanks.
231 Rudels if the tanks were 120,000.
192 Rudels if the tanks were 100,000, and so on.
Russian tanks suffered losses from German panzers, jagd-panzers and antitank guns. On top of these, how many tanks needed to be destroyed
by air attack alone for Germany to win the war?
48 Rudels would have destroyed 25,000 tanks (48.1 Rudels, to be precise).
19 Rudels would have destroyed 10,000 tanks (19.2 Rudels, to be precise).
My guess is that 10,000 tanks, all destroyed on the battlefield or in the vicinity, would have been more than enough. A first conclusion can be drawn: not Rudel alone, but a small number of his peers would have changed the course of history.
Let us make a further step, and consider less formidable pilots and comparing them to the above numbers. We consider pilots with a victory tally of 50 kill each (a little less than one tenth of Rudel’s claims).
500 “one-tenth Rudels” would have destroyed 25,000 tanks.
200 “one-tenth Rudels” would have destroyed 10,000 tanks.
A second conclusion can be drawn: a relatively small (500 at most, 200 more probably) number of “one-tenth-Rudels” would have changed the course of history.
From the above numbers, if reasonably correct, I draw my own conclusion: Rudel was a braggart. The real value of anti-tank planes (and other anti-tank weapons) was modest.
Returning to facts and numbers, let’s consider the 2,500 combat missions flown by Rudel. If I remember correctly, USAAF Eight Air Force retired crews after 25 missions, to afford them fair survival chances. Certainly USAAF was conservative, but Rudel claimed to have flown 100 times these 25 missions. Even quadrupling the American limit to 100 missions, Rudel claimed 25 times that number. Just think about how risky Eight Air Force missions were, multiply that risk 25 times and you end up with Rudel’s career.
From the above numbers, if reasonably correct, I draw my own conclusion: Rudel was a braggart. In reality, he flew fewer missions, or most of these had no risk at all.
30 times shot down. I know that Rudel was severely wounded and lost a leg, but just think a little at this number. Try to hit an airplane for 30 times with bullets and shells, always leaving the pilot alive. Pilots apart, for 30 times the plane receive fatal damage: one time the engine is stopped, another the fuel tank sets on fire or explode, control linkages are severed, wings or tail are shot away, and each time the pilot bail out or crashland successfully, and always comes out alive and is never captured.
There’s no need for statistical analysis here.
Conclusion, I’m not saying that Rudel didn’t exist, but that he was a braggart. I went a little off talking about falsified documents. This is not necessary. Just in case, I say it again: all the above is my opinion, and I’m smiling, not grinding my teeth.
