You're on the mark about adopting a first production card from a new series. I usually try and get the follow-up in the series since most of the bugs (if any) are ironed out with the next card. With today's technology and programs they can pretty much find an issue with a card before they even make it (circuit sims and such) so a first of the series "lemon" is hardly likely these days.
As far as driver issues go, ATI earned that bad reputation about 11-13 years ago and it seems it will never lose it despite stellar work from 2000 onwards. I've had about 10 ATI cards and 6 Nvidia cards since 1998 (and two 3DFX cards) and for the most part I've had nearly as many driver issues with Nvidia as ATI (given the number of ATI cards I've had compared to Nvidia it's expected).
The 460 is a nice card, and the price isn't bad, but you can get more for less with ATI at this point in time.
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