the crazy existentialist game with four cards

[raaaid]

i find it a scarry game to play for as you have as much probabily of losing as of winning but...

0.25 of games just dont exist just like if they vanished from existence for being not posible within the rules

the games simple and is based on the magic 8 ball algorithm

you have 4 cards, an ace a 2 a 3 and 4

you have them upside down and you shufle and pick one

if you get an ace you win if a two you lose, if a 3 or a 4 you take that card out and pick another

the 3 or a 4 is the magic 8 ball equivalent of ask later

so what are you chances to FINISH the game, that is getting a one or a two

amazingly the chances to finish the game is not one actually you have 0.375 chance to win and 0.375 chance to lose

the big question is what happens in that .25 chance left

you see your chance to win:

your chance to get the ace at 1st is 1/4 to get it at second that is a 4 and an ace is 1/4*1/3 and to get it at third try that is a 4 a 3 an an ace 1/4*1/3*1/2=0.375

mindblowing game on exisntelism is like by setting certain rules to the game whole realities disaapear

[Verhängnis]

No, reality hasn't gone anywhere.

[WTE_Galway]

You should do a decision tree so you do not forget stuff when doing this sort of probability.

All that went wrong is you totally forgot that there are two different combinations that win at stage two (3 then ACE) or (4 then ACE) and two different combinations that can win at stage three (3 then 4 then ACE) or (4 then 3 then ACE).

[raaaid]

Originally Posted by WTE_Galway

You should do a decision tree so you do not forget stuff when doing this sort of probability.

All that went wrong is you totally forgot that there are two different combinations that win at stage two (3 then ACE) or (4 then ACE) and two different combinations that can win at stage three (3 then 4 then ACE) or (4 then 3 then ACE).

wow im amazed i figured out right after posting but i though hey no way none notice

thanks a lot