This some real threadnecro here, but i thought i'd leave my findings for anyone else wondering about this:
After leveling up, save the game immediately and now you have several options.
1: stand still, get an green dragon
2: move about lots, likely get an bone dragon
3: change zone (i walked from montero to the bridge), get a red dragon
4: change island via boat, get black dragon.
Not sure if this is 100% but its been like this for the last 6-7levels for me atleast.
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