I did some scripted save game creation and analysis (don't ask) with over a thousand newly created games; apparently, the ore cart in Dragondor has a phoenix scroll 0.5-1% of the time. So the magic spring is definitely easier to get (showed up maybe 6% of the time), but has the side effect of relying on there being less than 8 elves in the elf stack. (I don't know the probability for spawning <8 elves, but it seems like it's not that great.)
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