Dear Doggles,
If I show that a ceiling estimation of the chance to be Pk is 30% with absurd reasoning (I estimated that the enmy plane could each time hit the fuselage at 200m without taking into account the much larger surface of the wings) and explain that it has happen 3 time in less than an hour (this means simultaneously - I don't dye that much - in fact my death rate has skyrocketed since the introduction of the new ammo) there is something wrong.
reminder :
3 time at 30% chance means that I should have 0.3x0.3x0.3 = 0.027 = 2.7% chances to get killed that way 3 time in a row
Regards,
TcViP
Regarding the 500 times trial pls do the test with a coin toss. You'll see rapidly (at 5 to 10 try) that the chance even itself pretty rapidly around ... 50% ! Upon to you to tests it 490 times more