I have a GTX580 1.5gb, and CloD is not smooth over land and I must turn down settings to prevent using more than 1.5gb.
My resolution is 2560x1600, 30" screen.
So, if you want the option to upgrade your monitor at some stage, go for the 3gb.
Edit: Note however that CloD is the ONLY game/sim that uses more than 1.5gb... so maybe one day it will be optimised to use under that I don't know..
I play ROF and DCS:A-10C with most things maxed and HDR on and still < 1.5gb.
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