Well all the signs at the moment are that we'll be getting photorealistic environments in a few years but that the interactivity and gameplay elements will still be stunted.
I have to say I'm hugely encouraged by the approach Oleg and crew are taking with SoW. I don't see why subsims, tank sims etc. shouldn't plug in to the basic game. In fact, this would be entirely logical. For instance it would be of great assistance in writing a Sub sim if pre-existing code allowed for sophisticated and variable behaviour by groups of attacking aircraft. If I were running 1c I'd be taking a hard look at the subsim genre... it's there for the taking. The Silent Hunter series is still on life support only thanks to modders. The retail games are not only poor, they're so badly designed that there are strict limits to what even dedicated modders can achieve. A subsim with well modelled sensors and decent AI would be a winner even if it only had about 15-20 AI platforms because that number would hit 50-100 within two years.
The problems with most online games are (as pointed out above) A) players are easily bored B) there's no way of enforcing any kind of organisation on them C) they don't fear for their virtual lives. There's not much to be done about A and B, but C could be fixed with clever design, e.g. if an all-time 'death count' limited the number of servers you could join. Players must have something to lose...
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