There's about 60 spells available. A treasure chest (from combat, with or without dragon) has a 15% chance to be a scroll. If (as I'm guessing, but don't really know) scroll choice is random, you've got about a 0.25% chance that any given chest you dig up is going to be Turn Back Time. It's perfectly reasonable to expect to open at least 900 combat chests over the course of the game. So you should have only a 10.5% chance or so of NOT finding a given scroll in combat during the course of the game - which includes Turn Back Time. But over the course of the game is a long time. With only 1/4 of the game left, it's actually pretty close to 50/50 whether you'll find it this game or not. And again, I'm just guessing that scroll choice is random here; someone who knows more might want to correct me on that.
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