If you're out of warranty, the BD drive costs about $99 and is one of the few user-replaceable parts of a ps3. But with a warranty it's better to have Sony fix it
I have a launch ps3 too and it has never broken <knocks on wood>. I expect the BD drive will be the first thing to wear out if anything, but only from DRE. Fortunately I don't have all that many disc-based games, and I use a pc for dvd's.
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