Armor penetration chance is just a chance. Tank commanders don't have a a red, yellow, or green light that tells them what their aiming for is going to penetrate. Disable armor penetration and messages about damage, it will be more fun and realistic. Memorize the types of tanks, armor angles, and armor thickness, and you will be a true tank commander.
I know nothing about the Japanese, I don't play 1.16. But you are right they are not good when it comes to armor. I'm guessing they compensate for that by speed and perhaps bigger and more guns.
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