Binky, I think you're focussing too much on the specific date events than on the whole scenario.

The declarations of surprise and astonishment by the CinC at Pearl Harbour are the perfect example that there was not even the faintest idea among them, and the sabotage thing was just a propaganda aspect. Still, a plethora of intelligence wasn't really enough to give an alert state?
I believe that Washington observed carefully and was well aware of what was happening, but they were just deliberately waiting to be attacked in order to have a valid reason that would shock the public opinion.

...and I hate to say this, but it's pretty much like what happened for 9/11..

Complete and utter nonsense.

The effect is not always based on numbers. In the situation that war have not not been declared a highly mobile force which no one can deny access due to the free travel at sea are a very powerfull tool.

It is about presence and show of force which can exploitet by diplomacy.
In a limit war settings such a force will have the ability to reach far beyond the frontline where the opposition can do little to oppose it. Like the US landing a Inchon, Korea, september 1950 which essentially turned the war.

I can recommend reading "Sea Power a Naval History" by E.B.Potter

http://gifsoup.com/view5/2320932/bla...headdesk-o.gif

And why would that be? :confused:

Well, he read: 9-11 was a gov. conspiracy.

You wrote: Before 9-11 there were terror warnings

hehehe too true ;)

Regarding the opening comments of this topic- it's interesting to note the belief that the USN was caught completely unaware that an attack was imminent. In fact the USN did have good intelligence that a surprise attack was coming but didnt know where- the reason the Enterprise was not at Pearl Harbour when the attack came was because it was delivering planes to Wake Island where US Navy Intelligence guessed the attack was coming. Fortunately for the Enterprise a storm delayed its return to PH and it missed the attack.
Whenever there is a choice of explanation for extraordinary events between a grand conspiracy and incompetence, i know which is more likely to occur.

uhmmm although I can accept that a part of the political class of the time was incompetent, I wouldn't say the same of the US military.

I'm not saying that everybody in the chain of command knew it, but I'm wondering whether the consistent and concrete intelligence that had reached the higher spheres of the time was not being deliberately ignored or dismissed..

Come to think of it, it's the perfect plan: first you poke a potential opponent, then you just sit and wait for him to do the first move, possibly a dramatic, coward and big scale attack. Next thing you know you're in the game: industries working around the clock, hundreds of thousands of young men armed and sent to fight, but above all the war is being fought somewhere else, with no damage to cities, factories and population.

America might not have been willing to go to war again, but first thing they did was declaring war to Germany and send troops and ships to Europe.. even in the collective imaginary, it was a war to fight the Nazis, the Pacific war was never as "glamorous" or famous as the one in the ETO, and then again the US war effort was started and ended with Japan..

It's probably because I like playing the devil's advocate, but again I don't think for a minute that the fact that the USA was the only country to actually become the first superpower and gain so much economic and military strength after WW2 was a coincidence..

"People important enough" certainly thought a Pearl Harbor raid was possible. Until November the Fleet was on high alert and patrol patterns were flown that covered the area 1AF launched from. An attack at that time would have been spotted and probably would have found at least half the Fleet at sea.

BUT - In Winter the North Pacific is very stormy and no fun at all. The USN couldn't have made the raid thhat the IJN did, neither could the RN. When Winter hit, the "people important enough" felt that they were safe in relaxing a bit. The Fleet had been on War Alert status for six months, and ships and a/c were in dire need of long-postponed maintenance - not to mention crews (especially the Patrol Wing guys) needed a break too.

So the Fleet went off alert, and Patrol sectors shifted to basically ASW work south of Oahu. The Carriers were used to deliver planes to outposts instead of covering the Battle Line - all the CVs being away was why Kimmel had the whole Battle Line in PH that weekend; normally half would be at sea.

So the bottom line is that the USN was definitely alert for a PH raid until the weather made one impossible - except it wasn't impossible for the IJN.

The fact that Intelligence was 100% right about what the Japanese were doing in SE Asia distracted from Pearl too. We were watching the invasion fleets in the South China Sea and could not conceive that the Japanese would do the invasions without CV air cover.

from post #55, http://208.84.116.223/forums/index.p...ic=13339&st=40